Search Results for: asset

VIX and MOVE Rolling Correlation Periods of high correlation between safe and risk assets are generally not good for balanced portfolios, because diversification is hard to find. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession Investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, like 2007/2008. This chart suggests that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession start and end dates. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Correlation Matrix This grid shows the correlation between different asset classes. It is very useful for asset allocation. Image: Fidelity Investments

S&P 500 Performance Leading to U.S. Election Date This table shows that over the last 20 election cycles in the U.S., there have been only two instances of market declines in the 12 months leading to the election results. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

S&P 500 Tax Adjusted EPS vs. Trend Interesting chart showing that S&P 500 tax adjusted earnings are well above the trend in the United States, and have historically preceded earning plunges. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

NFIB Survey Leads U.S. Employment The U.S. economy is not unaffected by the trade war and global slowdown. This chart suggests that U.S. employment is slowing down. The chart also suggests that the NFIB survey leads U.S. employment by 6 months. Image: Rothschild & Co Asset Management Europe

U.S. Real GDP and Components of GDP In Q2 2019, U.S. GDP was 68% personal consumption. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Conference Board CEO Business Confidence – Expectations for Economy 6 Months Ahead CEOs in the U.S. remain pessimistic about economic conditions. Outside of U.S. recession, CEO confidence has never been so low. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Currency Impact on International Returns (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S.) Chart showing the currency impact on the MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. Index. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and ISM Manufacturing Index The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Image: Pictet Asset Management