Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Image:…
Can The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Fall Further? Well, according to this chart, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield could fall further. The chart suggests that G4 central bank assets as percentage of GDP (1-year change) lead U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (1-year change) by one year. Image: Macrobond
Money-Market Funds Flows Over the last 4 weeks, money-market funds have seen a significant inflow of nearly $95 billion. That’s much more larger than in previous years. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Should Investors Be Concerned About Rising Oil Prices? Because the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient, it helps to contain oil prices in the long-term. Cheap oil is good for global economic growth, business and consumers. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Tariff Rates Are Now Higher Than Developed Market Countries, Approaching Emerging Countries The average U.S. tariff rate could increase to 7.7%, close to those of Brazil. You may also like “China is Raising Tariffs Only on the U.S..” Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Central Bank Balance Sheets vs. Global Equities Central banks do influence some asset prices, but correlation is not causation. Image: DoubleLine
Total Debt by Sector for Developed & Emerging Economies Argentina is the least indebted market in terms of GDP, while Japan is the most indebted market in terms of GDP. The United States’ total debt is 252% of GDP. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Sustainability Generates Better Risk-Adjusted Performance Many large institutional asset owners have embraced sustainable investing. Image: Robeco
Why Are U.S. Banks Healthier Than Ever? U.S. banks are much stronger than ever. They have more capital and should withstand the next recession. See Fed’s annual stress test (Dodd-Frank Act Stress Tests): “The capital levels of the firms after the hypothetical severe global recession are higher than the actual capital levels of large banks…
Why Lower Bond Yields Influence the S&P 500? Because lower interest rates push stock market multiples higher. If interest rates are lower, then the value of future cash flows increases, because future cash flows are discounted back at a lower interest rate. So, lower U.S. 10-year yields influence the stock market equity risk premium. On the other…