Global PMI Manufacturing and Rolling Yearly Change in the Balance Sheet (FED, ECB, BoJ, PBOC) This chart shows the correlation between the change in global liquidity and the global PMI manufacturing. Image: Swedbank Research
Global PMI for Manufacturing Global PMI for manufacturing slides to lowest since 2012. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Global PMI & US ISM Manufacturing Indices This chart suggests that Global PMI Manufacturing Index leads US ISM Manufacturing Index by two months. Image: Capital Economics
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs This year, U.S. ISM PMIs have picked up sharply, finally catching the earlier surge in earnings-revisions momentum. The cyclical upturn is now underway. Image: Topdown Charts
Global Quarterly Tech Capex Growth Tech investment has surged in recent years, but the underlying rhythm hasn’t changed: global tech capex has grown 14.6% annually since 2013, right in line with its decade‑long trend. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Financial Conditions Index Global financial conditions have eased to a 12-month low, supported by expectations of monetary policy easing, improved investor sentiment, tightening credit spreads, and a more stable economic outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI The U.S. ISM manufacturing index reading below 50 signals a contraction in manufacturing activity, which may impact payroll numbers. However, the relationship between the index and actual payroll figures is not straightforward. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories The spread between U.S. ISM New Orders and Inventories suggests a positive upward trend in the ISM manufacturing PMI, with new orders increasing at a more rapid pace than inventories. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Percentage of Countries with Manufacturing PMI Above 50 While the global manufacturing sector faced headwinds in mid-2023, the latest data suggest a gradual recovery is underway, with the percentage of countries in expansion nearly doubling from September 2023 to the present. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
ISM Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Recessions A drop in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI below 45 signals significantly heightened recession risks, indicating a severe contraction in the manufacturing sector. Image: BofA Global Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Semiconductors Semiconductors are discounting a substantial rise in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which suggests a robust expansion in manufacturing activity and overall economic growth. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy