Search Results for: monetary policy

China Property Sales and Total Credit Growth According to Gavekal, Chinese monetary policy is still in a moderate “selective easing” mode. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Central Bank Balance Sheet to GDP Ratios Central bank balance sheet to GDP ratios, influenced by monetary policy, vary from one economy to another. Image: Bianco Research

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate In modern history, every recession was preceded by an inverted yield curve and high real interest rates. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will…

Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate One of our most favorite charts is the real GDP vs. the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation). Historically, recessions begin when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that today. So, this cycle should not end any time soon. Real Fed…

Real Fed Funds Rate Real Fed funds rate is a key indicative factor, because it’s a very good measure of how tight or loose monetary policy is. Real Fed funds rate is the “true cost” of borrowing money. Recessions have always been preceded by a substantial tightening of monetary policy, which, in real terms, matter…

Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Strong tech spending, policy support, and private-sector agility are keeping momentum alive despite shifting trade winds. Image: International Monetary Fund

Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves room for stronger monetary support if economic conditions worsen. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Earnings – STOXX Europe 600 EPS Level Thanks to an accomodative monetary and fiscal policy, the STOXX Europe 600 EPS is growing much faster than during the last cycle (2007-2019). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research