What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…

The Long-Term Impact of Compounded Returns

The Long-Term Impact of Compounded Returns The amount earned from compounding grows exponentially over time. Successful investing is all about patience and discipline. So, a lack of patience and investment discipline may impact long-term returns. And keep in mind that the power compounding only works if you do not lose capital during the investment horizon. What about compound…

Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell?

Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible negative effects in the USA – And at full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP