U.S. Equity Sentiment Conditions Index

U.S. Equity Sentiment Conditions Index U.S. equity sentiment appears to be at relatively depressed levels heading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election, due to heightened uncertainty, market volatility, and concerns about potential policy shifts. Image: Pictet Asset Management

VIX Seasonality

VIX Seasonality As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, market volatility is expected to remain elevated but should decline after the election results are known. Image: Topdown Charts

Distribution of S&P 500 12-Month Total Returns

Distribution of S&P 500 12-Month Total Returns Goldman Sachs, in its base case scenario, expects the S&P 500 index to generate a total return of 6% in 2024, which is slightly below the average return typically observed during presidential election years.

S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle

S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle Although the S&P 500 is facing increased volatility in this post-election year, its performance still aligns with typical patterns observed in the four-year presidential cycle. Image: Ned Davis Research