Gold Price vs. S&P 500 Index and Recessions Throughout history, gold has been considered a safe haven during market declines. Since 2015, its correlation with U.S. stocks has strengthened, making it more likely for gold…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Based on historical patterns, there is a tendency for the U.S. stock market to experience weakness during the first half of May. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Equity Valuations The current market environment reflects a contrast between relatively cheap Emerging Markets (EM) and Developed Markets (DM) ex-U.S., and expensive U.S. stock valuations. Image: Topdown Charts

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. The NAAIM Exposure Index at 62.98 indicates that…

Rolling 24 Month Correlation Between U.S. Treasury Bonds and Equities In an inflationary world, UST bonds lose their effectiveness as a hedge against U.S. stocks, as inflation erodes bond payouts and the surge in interest…

Earnings – S&P 500 LTM EPS Growth YoY Morgan Stanley’s leading earnings indicator suggests a positive outlook for S&P 500 EPS over the next 12 months, indicating a potential increase in profitability. Image: Morgan Stanley…

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In March, the U.S. LEI decreased by 0.3%, suggesting a fragile economic outlook. Image: The Conference Board

Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Despite the rise in the median short interest to 1.8%, the level remains relatively low, indicating that market participants hold a generally positive or cautiously…

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast According to Goldman Sachs, Brent crude oil prices are projected to remain within the range of $75 to $90 per barrel until the end of 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

FMS Investors – Net % Saying Recession Likely The outlook among FMS investors regarding the possibility of a global recession in the near future is characterized by a much greater sense of optimism. Image: BofA…