Search Results for: futures

S&P 500 Futures – Massive Pre-market Fear Since 1982 Since 1982, there have been two time periods of this massive pre-market fear: in 2002 and 2008, during the bear market. Image: Sentimentrader

Volatility – VIX Index The VIX dropping below 20 signals fading market jitters and a steadier tone, typically a tailwind for equities as calmer volatility expectations often accompany rising stock prices. Lower volatility tends to invite buyers back in. Image: MarketDesk Research

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 Software Total Return Bitcoin has been trading hand in hand with U.S. software names. Its current drawdown may stick around for a while if the pressure on tech doesn’t ease. But when the mood shifts, don’t be surprised if Bitcoin snaps back fast. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Equity Net Long Positioning – Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers Net Future Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers aren’t back to their peak long bets in U.S. stock futures, and with growth resilient, easier policy, and profits steady, the rally might still have legs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Consecutive Trading Sessions Above 50-Day Moving Average The S&P 500’s 138-day rally above its 50-day moving average has come to an end, snapping the index’s second-longest run this century and putting volatility back in the spotlight. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish, slashing their net long positions in major U.S. equity index futures—E-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P Midcap, and Russell 2000—to levels not seen since late 2023. Image: Bloomberg

Two-Year Rolling Change in the Fed Funds Rate Current rate cut expectations, as priced in by fed funds futures, are consistent with a recession scenario. However, market risk indicators and recent Fed communications suggest this may overestimate the pace of Fed rate cuts. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to hit 4.35% by the end of 2025, diverging from current futures market expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Federal Debt Growth and Gold Price While the increase in U.S. federal debt has traditionally correlated with higher gold prices, multiple other factors significantly influence gold’s market value. Image: Deutsche Bank

Price of Oil Forecast In contrast to futures market’s expectations, Goldman Sachs forecasts a positive outlook for oil prices over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Commodities – Commodity Backwardation Rate Current commodity spot prices are higher than futures prices due to tight supply and strong demand. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management