The U.S. Presidential Cycle
The U.S. Presidential Cycle How U.S. presidential elections affect stock market returns? This chart shows the forward return for the U.S. stock market based on election outcomes. Image: Fidelity Investments
The U.S. Presidential Cycle How U.S. presidential elections affect stock market returns? This chart shows the forward return for the U.S. stock market based on election outcomes. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Presidential Elections and the Stock Market The first two years of presidential terms tend to produce below-average returns, while the next 2 years tend to produce above-average returns. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Presidential Cycle During secular bull markets, the first term Presidential cycle suggests the S&P 500 Index at 3,740 into year-end. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Performance When President Is Up For Reelection Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished the year higher when a President has been up for reelection. Gains tend to occur in the second half of the year. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Incumbent Presidential Election Years Since 22nd Amendment Incumbent presidential election years have traditionally been good for equities, with an average return of 11.4% since 22nd amendment. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Presidential Election Years and S&P 500 Index Average Cumulative Returns This chart suggests that since 1932, volatility during primaries can produce strong returns. Image: Capital Group
U.S. Election – Presidential Cycle and Average S&P 500 Return since 1872 Since 1872, the S&P500 index has averaged 6.2% during an election year, and 9.6% on average if a Republican wins. Image: Jefferies
Economic Policy Uncertainty During U.S. Presidential Election Years Chart suggesting that historically, economic policy uncertainty is higher in U.S. presidential election years, particularly uncertainty related to tax policy. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections History also suggests that predictable elections are a non-event for the U.S. stock market. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
S&P 500 Market Capitalization Since Election Day for Three U.S. Presidents The S&P 500 market cap has increased by $8.65 trillion since the election of President Donald Trump. Image: Bespoke Investment Group