S&P 500 Index Performance 3-Months Before A Presidential Election The S&P 500 performance 3-months before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections.” Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections Americans tend to elect Democrats when unemployment is high, and Republicans when unemployment is low. Image: Ken Fisher
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns The S&P 500 index tends to have positive returns in the fourth quarter of the year, especially in the third year of a presidential term. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance When a New President is in Office After the presidential inauguration in the U.S., market weakness is expected in February. Image: LPL Research
U.S. Election and S&P 500 from October 2000 to January 2001 What could happen to the stock market if there’s no clear winner on presidential Election Day? Image: Financial Times
Yield Curve – 2s-10s U.S. Treasury Slope Around the U.S. Election Date in 2016 and 2020 The U.S. Treasury yield curve could steepen following the presidential election. Image: J.P. Morgan
VIX Curve and U.S. Election Investors expect more volatility ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Elections – Pre-election Equity Performance vs. Average Chart showing how the U.S. stock market has performed before and after presidential elections (“Closely contested” is defined as the margin of popular vote being below average). Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928 The U.S. presidential elections have some impact on stock market volatility. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Volatility and U.S. Elections This chart shows how U.S. presidential elections affect volatility when the same party remains in office or not. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research