U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…

New Home Sales vs. Recessions

New Home Sales vs. Recessions Typically, a recession occurs when the annual change in New Home Sales declines by about 20%. This chart suggests that a recession from these levels would be surprising. Image: Calculated Risk

10-Year Rolling Average Sales Growth by Region

10-Year Rolling Average Sales Growth by Region The importance of remembering the past: this chart shows the steep decline in sales growth over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Corporate Bond Sales

Global Corporate Bond Sales Companies sold a record amount of bonds in September. Yield-seeking investors were served up $434bn of new corporate bonds globally. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Total Home Sales

U.S. Total Home Sales This year, lower mortgage rates could boost U.S. home sales in the fourth quarter. Image: Leonard Kiefer

U.S. Insider Stock Sales and Recessions

U.S. Insider Stock Sales and Recessions In the United States, insider stock sales rise at their highest level in about 20 years, as recession worries mount. Image: Financial Times

China Property Sales and Total Credit Growth

China Property Sales and Total Credit Growth According to Gavekal, Chinese monetary policy is still in a moderate “selective easing” mode. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

S&P 500 Sales Growth vs. Oil Price

S&P 500 Sales Growth vs. Oil Price This chart shows the good correlation between S&P 500 sales growth and the price of oil. Image: J.P. Morgan