Annual Performance of S&P 500

Annual Performance of S&P 500 The S&P 500 Index gained 29% in 2019, its best performance since 2013, boosted by economic data, Fed rate cuts, and the US-China phase-one trade deal. Image: Credit Suisse Research

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus Fed funds rate yield curve and recessions. Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve is associated with slow economic growth or recessions. The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession. A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 could…

U.S. Recessions since 1957

U.S. Recessions since 1957 This chart shows that almost every Fed rate cut has been associated with a recession. Image: John P. Hussman

What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors?

What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? The risk of a Fed policy error The probability of a Fed rate cut in July 2019 is now 84.6%. Image: Bloomberg

Asset Returns During Hiking Cycles

Asset Returns During Hiking Cycles Investors should worry when the Fed stops raising or cuts rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

One of the Best Recession Indicator

One of the Best Recession Indicator The Fed is cutting rates and the 10-year rate is inverted to Fed funds. Image: Real Investment Advice

Probability of US Recession is Rising

Probability of US Recession is Rising Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, said that “Fed could cut as soon as July but it may not halt slowdown/recession.” Image: U.S. Global Investors