American Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index by 3 Months This chart shows that the downtrend in American semiconductor sales is currently worrying. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011.” Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.80%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Software Stocks (IGV) and Forward P/E The recent weakness in software stocks reflects a valuation de-rating rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Retail investors have been adding exposure on dips, even as institutional money stays cautious. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (ex. Financials & Utilities) Corporate America is minting profits like never before, and with margins set to stretch even further into 2026, the bullish narrative remains intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance for Gold Gold often starts the year strong, with January usually one of its best months as post-holiday portfolio adjustments and fresh investment flows boost demand. Image: Deutsche Bank
Company Insider Buy-Sell Ratio Insider buying has recently dried up, with insider purchases falling behind insider sales by the most since July 2024—this may reflect either executive caution or opportunistic profit-taking. Image: Bloomberg
Most Shorted Stocks Relative to Russell 3000 Heavily shorted stocks generally underperform the broader market over the long term, but in 2025, they significantly outperformed, driven primarily by aggressive short covering. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Each Component of the Speculative Trading Indicator Screens as Elevated vs. History All three core components of Goldman Sachs’s speculative trading indicator—unprofitable, penny, and high EV/sales stocks—are trading near the extreme upper deciles, reflecting a highly speculative market environment right now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Foreign Revenues by Sector S&P 500 companies derive 28% of their total revenues from foreign markets — a figure that has remained relatively stable in recent years. The remaining 72% is generated domestically within the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Foreign Revenues of S&P 500 Companies While S&P 500 companies are broadly exposed to global markets, the majority of their sales—and thus, much of their operational and macroeconomic risk—remains tied to the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bears are struggling to find U.S. stocks that don’t make them feel like they’re overpaying—similar to buying a used car at full price from a salesman who claims it was only lightly driven by a little old lady! It’s already Wednesday, Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 🐫🐪😎