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	<title>Search Results for &#8220;Federal Reserve&#8221; &#8211; ISABELNET</title>
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	<description>Advanced Stock Market Forecast for Professional and Individual</description>
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	<title>Search Results for &#8220;Federal Reserve&#8221; &#8211; ISABELNET</title>
	<link>https://www.isabelnet.com</link>
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		<title>New York Fed GDP Nowcast</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/new-york-fed-gdp-nowcast/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 08:30:38 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=27950</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed lifted its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.60% from 2.51%, reinforcing the view that the expansion still has legs. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick the Image to Enlarge]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/temporary-help-services-vs-real-gdp-and-u-s-recession/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:30:53 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=10152</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 1.46% YoY in August. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do&#8230;]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/smoothed-u-s-recession-probabilities/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:30:30 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=6193</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.60%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to&#8230;]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/probability-of-u-s-recession-calculated-from-the-yield-curve/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:30:54 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=12347</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 12.3%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the cycle still has legs. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-new-private-housing-units-authorized-by-building-permits-and-recessions/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:30:24 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=18883</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits rose to 1.443 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Dow Jones Performance Under Various Federal Reserve Bank Chairs</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/dow-jones-performance-under-various-federal-reserve-bank-chairs/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2026 08:32:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=142146</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Dow Jones Performance Under Various Federal Reserve Bank Chairs The Dow has performed well under Jerome Powell, delivering an annualized return of 8.4%, comfortably above the long-term average of 6.2%. That puts him 8th among the 16 Fed chairs. Will Kevin Warsh do better? Image: Carson Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/federal-reserve-balance-sheet-until-2022/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Dec 2025 09:30:22 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=39066</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections With QT ending, the Fed will pivot to reserve management purchases of Treasury bills in early 2026. Goldman Sachs expects bank reserves to climb past $3 trillion by late next year, a sign that liquidity is finally loosening again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-u-s-real-gdp-estimate/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2025 09:30:25 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=10739</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate Estimates from the Atlanta Fed&#8217;s GDPNow point to 3.9% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025, a reminder that the U.S. economy isn&#8217;t cooling just yet. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Energy Prices vs. Fed Rate Cuts</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/inflation-global-energy-prices/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jan 2025 09:29:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=59887</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Energy Prices vs. Fed Rate Cuts Energy prices have historically risen after the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates. Image: MarketDesk Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>U.S. M2 to Nominal GDP Ratio</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-m2-to-nominal-gdp-ratio/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jan 2025 09:29:37 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=84267</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[U.S. M2 to Nominal GDP Ratio The return of the U.S. M2 to nominal GDP ratio to its long-term trend is a positive indicator. It reflects a healthier balance between money supply and economic output, fostering stability and sustainable growth in the economy. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>U.S. Money Market Funds</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/flows-retail-money-market-funds/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Dec 2024 09:29:41 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=81159</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[U.S. Money Market Funds Following the Fed&#8217;s first rate cut, U.S. money market funds typically experience outflows within 12 months as investors rebalance portfolios and reassess risk in response to changing interest rates and market conditions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>Inflation &#8211; U.S. Core PCE Deflator</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/inflation-pce-deflator-yoy-projections/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Dec 2024 09:30:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=73152</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Inflation &#8211; U.S. Core PCE Deflator The recent stalling of disinflationary progress in U.S. core PCE deflator could complicate the Federal Reserve&#8217;s monetary policy decisions. Image: Deutsche Bank]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Market-Implied Path of the Fed Funds Rate</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/market-implied-path-of-the-fed-funds-rate/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Nov 2024 09:30:19 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=47027</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Market-Implied Change in Fed Funds Rate Traders are anticipating a total of 75 bps in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Interest Rates &#8211; Fed Funds Futures Curve</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/interest-rates-fed-funds-futures-curve/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Nov 2024 09:31:42 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=34822</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Interest Rates &#8211; Fed Funds Futures Curve After the Federal Reserve&#8217;s recent meeting, the slope of the fed funds futures curve has increased slightly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate movements. Image: The Daily Shot]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Inflation &#8211; U.S. Core PCE</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/inflation-u-s-core-pce/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 08:30:42 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=82133</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Inflation &#8211; U.S. Core PCE The GS Core Inflation Tracker currently remains below the Federal Reserve&#8217;s target of 2%, which is a crucial component of its monetary policy aimed at ensuring price stability and anchoring inflation expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>Factor Performance Prior and After the First Fed Rate Cut</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/factor-performance-prior-and-after-the-first-fed-rate-cut/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Sep 2024 08:31:55 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=104226</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Factor Performance Prior and After the First Fed Rate Cut Historically, the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve during easing cycles have tended to favor Growth over Value, Small over Large, and Bonds over Stocks. Image: BofA US Equity &#38; Quant Strategy]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Median Index Returns Following First Fed Rate Cut</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/first-fed-rate-cut/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Sep 2024 08:31:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=8007</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Median Index Returns Following First Fed Rate Cut Historically, midcaps have outperformed the S&#38;P 500 and the Russell 2000 in the three and twelve months following the initial Federal Reserve rate cut. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield &#8211; Fed Funds Rate</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/fed-funds-rate-vs-2-year-u-s-treasury-yield/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Sep 2024 08:30:52 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=79372</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield &#8211; Fed Funds Rate The current spread between the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield and the federal funds rate suggests that the bond market perceives the Federal Reserve&#8217;s monetary policy as tight. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>Current Market Pricing for Fed Funds Rate</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/current-market-pricing-for-fed-funds-rate/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Sep 2024 08:30:32 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=77617</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Current Market Pricing for Fed Funds Rate Traders predict that the Federal Reserve&#8217;s terminal rate, which marks the end of the rate cut cycle, will be around 3%. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>Performance of Gold and Fed Cutting Cycles</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/fed-rate-cut-expectations-is-a-support-for-gold/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Aug 2024 08:31:30 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=6238</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Performance of Gold and Fed Cutting Cycles Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are often perceived as favorable for gold prices, particularly during periods of economic downturn. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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