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	<title>Search Results for &#8220;cycle&#8221; &#8211; ISABELNET</title>
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	<description>Advanced Stock Market Forecast for Professional and Individual</description>
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	<title>Search Results for &#8220;cycle&#8221; &#8211; ISABELNET</title>
	<link>https://www.isabelnet.com</link>
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	<item>
		<title>Hyperscaler Capex</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/sp-500-operating-eps-vs-capex/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 08:30:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=62492</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Hyperscaler Capex US hyperscalers are on track to spend $806 billion this year, with annual capex projected to reach $1.234 trillion by 2027. That kind of spending points to an AI infrastructure supercycle, not just another phase of cloud growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Number of Rate Hikes per Fed Tightening Cycle, 1994 to 2023</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/every-fed-tightening-cycle-has-preceded-a-slowdown-in-the-ism-manufacturing-index/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 08:33:40 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Number of Rate Hikes per Fed Tightening Cycle, 1994 to 2023 Since 1994, the Fed has gone through six tightening cycles. Five lasted for years and involved at least six rate hikes. But with real rates already starting from historically high levels, this cycle may be much shorter. Image: Real Investment Advice]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>S&#038;P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/median-sp-500-index-move-around-last-fed-hike/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 08:30:16 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=76259</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[S&#38;P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles History says the S&#38;P 500 tends to stumble in the weeks after the Fed starts hiking, before recovering as the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>S&#038;P 500 Around First Fed Rate Hikes vs. Speed of Hikes</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/sp-500-around-first-fed-rate-hikes-vs-speed-of-hikes/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:32:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=62960</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[S&#38;P 500 Around First Fed Rate Hikes vs. Speed of Hikes In fast tightening cycles, the S&#38;P 500 typically struggles in the 12 months post-first hike; in slow or no cycles, it tends to rally. Near term, stocks stay shaky until investors believe in a &#8220;slow-hike&#8221; or &#8220;one-and-done&#8221; Fed. Image: Ned Davis Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>S&#038;P 500 Performance in this Cycle</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/relative-performance-sp-500-50-small-stocks-vs-50-largest-stocks/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:30:42 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=78082</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[S&#38;P 500 Performance in this Cycle Measured against prior four-year election cycles, the current bull market is unusually powerful: the S&#38;P 500 is up nearly 100% since the end of 2022, the second-strongest performance in history after the early dot-com rally. Image: Bloomberg]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>Seasonality &#8211; S&#038;P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/sp-500-cycle-composite-for-2019/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2026 08:30:50 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=7263</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Seasonality &#8211; S&#38;P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&#38;P 500 Cycle Composite still argues for a constructive 2026. The early-year correction suggests the market has already digested much of the typical midterm election weakness. Image: Ned Davis Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>S&#038;P 500 Index Performance After The First Fed Rate Hike</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/sp-500-index-performance-after-the-first-fed-rate-hike/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:32:50 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=49323</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[S&#38;P 500 Index Performance After The First Fed Rate Hike Historically, the S&#38;P 500 has weathered the Fed&#8217;s first rate hike better than investors might expect. Following an initial 25 bp move, the index often stumbles early but, in every cycle since 1990, has been higher a year later. Image: Carson Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets (Points)</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/cumulative-bull-vs-bear-markets/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:33:46 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=13963</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets (Points) Bear markets don&#8217;t just trim gains. They can erase most of the inflation-adjusted upside from an entire bull run. Which is why a late-cycle drop is never just noise. Image: Real Investment Advice]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Investor Psychology Cycle</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/investor-psychology-cycle/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 08:33:48 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=91091</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Investor Psychology Cycle When panic hits, markets overshoot to the downside, creating opportunities for contrarians to buy into peak fear. The mirror image? Euphoria, which usually sets up the exit. Image: Real Investment Advice]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/probability-of-u-s-recession-calculated-from-the-yield-curve/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:30:54 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=12347</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 12.3%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the cycle still has legs. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Commodities (Oil, Gold, Copper) &#8211; Commodity Net Long Positioning</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/commodities-oil-gold-copper-commodity-net-long-positioning/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:30:38 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=33271</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Commodities (Oil, Gold, Copper) &#8211; Commodity Net Long Positioning Momentum in gold and copper is firmly with the bulls as net-long positions build. The trend still has legs, but this isn&#8217;t an early-cycle trade anymore. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>S&#038;P 500 Performance Around Earnings Seasons</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/earnings-corporate-guidance/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:30:41 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=50185</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[S&#38;P 500 Performance Around Earnings Seasons The S&#38;P 500 typically rises during the first four weeks of earnings season, loses steam in the weeks that follow, and regains momentum as the next reporting cycle approaches. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>S&#038;P 500 Seasonal Composite Midterm Election Year</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-presidential-cycle/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:32:26 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=22893</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[S&#38;P 500 Seasonal Composite Midterm Election Year The S&#38;P 500 Seasonal Composite still points to more upside for 2026, but the path could get choppy. U.S. stocks are entering their weakest seasonal stretch, which typically runs from mid-August to early October. Image: Nautilus Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Equities and Mutual Funds as a % of Disposable Personal Income</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-total-disposable-personal-income/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:30:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=29064</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Equities and Mutual Funds as a % of Disposable Personal Income Stocks now dominate household wealth. As a result, the equity wealth effect is a much bigger force in the U.S. business cycle and a key driver of consumer spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/global-nonfinancial-equities-earnings-per-share-growth-and-capex-growth/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 08:30:46 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=56472</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Capex estimates keep surprising to the upside as earnings season rolls on. Hyperscaler spending is now on track to hit over $1 trillion in 2027. That looks less like a cycle and more like a regime change. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Hyperscaler Capex</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/sp-500-yoy-growth-buybacks-vs-capex-and-rd/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:31:16 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=18093</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is now expected to reach $799 billion this year, then rise to $1.068 trillion in 2027 and $1.301 trillion in 2028. This is starting to look less like a cycle than a structural reset. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>History of Asset Bubbles Past 60-Years</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/history-of-asset-bubbles-past-60-years/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:32:11 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=35268</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[History of Asset Bubbles Past 60-Years The AI rally is powering investor enthusiasm, with semiconductor names among the biggest winners. It&#8217;s also reviving talk of past hype cycles and whether the run can last. Image: BCA Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>S&#038;P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/returns-sp-500-four-year-presidential-cycle/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:32:58 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=56448</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[S&#38;P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&#38;P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation into the fall looking more likely. Image: Ned Davis Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>U.S. High Yield Index OAS</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-corporate-high-yield-bond-spreads/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2026 08:33:28 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=36064</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[U.S. High Yield Index OAS The credit cycle usually rolls over before equities do. For now, credit is not buying the equity stress story. U.S. high-yield OAS sits near 270 bps, still a long way from the 800 bps that typically signals recession risk. Image: Real Investment Advice]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<item>
		<title>Recession &#8211; Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/recession-length-of-every-u-s-business-cycle/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2026 08:03:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=65434</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Recession &#8211; Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle What a run. The U.S. expansion is now the sixth-longest on record. If 2026 passes without a recession, it climbs into the top five. Image: Deutsche Bank]]></description>
		
		
		
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