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	<title>Search Results for &#8220;tariff&#8221; &#8211; ISABELNET</title>
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	<description>Advanced Stock Market Forecast for Professional and Individual</description>
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	<title>Search Results for &#8220;tariff&#8221; &#8211; ISABELNET</title>
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		<title>Impact of Tariff Policies on the Effective Tariff Rate</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/increased-tariffs-between-the-u-s-and-china-is-it-bad-or-good-for-the-u-s/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2026 09:30:28 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Impact of Tariff Policies on the Effective Tariff Rate The Supreme Court&#8217;s ruling on the IEEPA tariffs barely moves the needle: the change only trims the effective tariff increase since early 2025, from just over 10pp to 9pp, leaving inflation and growth forecasts largely untouched. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Performance &#8211; S&#038;P 500 Relative to FTSE All-World Excluding U.S.</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/performance-sp-500-return-vs-msci-europe-return/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2026 09:30:13 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Performance &#8211; S&#038;P 500 Relative to FTSE All-World Excluding U.S. US stocks have sunk to a two-year low versus global peers, as tariffs bite and AI gains stay concentrated among a handful of megacaps. Diversifying beyond the U.S. is paying off. Image: Bloomberg]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Markets &#8211; Average Daily Change: SPY, TLT, LQD, HYG, IBIT</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/daily-change-in-sp-500-forward-eps/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2026 09:30:54 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Markets &#8211; Average Daily Change: SPY, TLT, LQD, HYG, IBIT Is &#8220;Sell America&#8221; becoming the new market mantra? Europe could rattle investors if it strikes back with tariffs and its own trade bazooka. Image: Bloomberg]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/fed-funds-rate-and-fed-funds-futures/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jan 2026 09:30:53 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Lower tariff rates and a dovish shift at the Fed could set the stage for rate cuts below 3.5% by year‑end, assuming inflation keeps drifting toward target and growth stays soft. Image: Deutsche Bank]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>S&#038;P 500 &#8211; U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past 22 Presidents</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-stock-returns-over-the-past-presidential-terms-starting-on-election-day/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jan 2026 09:32:57 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[S&#038;P 500 &#8211; U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past 22 Presidents Nearly a year into Trump&#8217;s presidency, the S&#38;P 500 has surged more than 16%, shaking off tariff headwinds. Bulls are smiling, betting on robust earnings and solid economic data to keep the rally alive. Image: Carson Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>U.S. Recession Probability</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-recession-probability/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Oct 2025 08:30:07 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[U.S. Recession Probability May&#8217;s tariff relief helped temper U.S. recession odds and buoy investor sentiment, but this new round of trade tensions could put that fragile calm to the test. Image: Deutsche Bank]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>S&#038;P 500 and 20-Day Moving Average</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/sp-500-and-stocks-above-their-20-day-moving-average/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:33:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[S&#038;P 500 and 20-Day Moving Average Since April, after tariff-related lows, the S&#38;P 500 has used the 20-day moving average as a floor during pullbacks, continuing its upward trend and sustaining a bullish outlook. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Real U.S. Consumer Spending</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/university-of-michigan-consumer-expectations-index-and-real-consumer-spending/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:30:07 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Real U.S. Consumer Spending During the first half of 2025, U.S. inflation-adjusted consumer spending contracted—the weakest pace seen in over 15 years—driven by cautious consumer behavior amid tariff concerns and economic uncertainties. Image: Deutsche Bank]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>U.S. Tariff Costs</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/average-consumer-price-increase-after-us-import-tariffs-by-25/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Aug 2025 08:30:44 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=5506</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[U.S. Tariff Costs Goldman Sachs forecasts that by October 2025, U.S. businesses will absorb just 8% of Trump-era tariff costs—down from 64%—while the share borne by U.S. consumers rises to 67%. This shift is expected to drive consumer prices higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/inflation-monthly-core-cpi-forecasts/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Aug 2025 08:30:33 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs projects U.S. core CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in tariffs, and expects it to gradually ease to 2.6% in 2026 despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>S&#038;P 500 Index and Blended Forward EPS</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/sp-500-blended-eps/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2025 08:30:41 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[S&#038;P 500 Index and Blended Forward EPS Citigroup strategists raised their year-end S&#38;P 500 target to 6,600 points, up from 6,300, expecting that tax cuts introduced in July 2025 will counterbalance the negative impact of tariffs on U.S. companies. Image: Bloomberg]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Copper Futures</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/copper-price-vs-china-aggregate-financing/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2025 08:30:56 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Copper Futures Copper prices declined significantly after it became clear that refined copper—essential for many industries—would not be subject to new U.S. tariffs, causing a sharp shift in market supply and demand expectations. Image: Daily Chartbook, Koyfin]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>S&#038;P 500 2025 Year-End Forecasts</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/2021-year-end-targets-for-the-sp-500-from-wall-street-strategists/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2025 08:32:14 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[S&#038;P 500 2025 Year-End Forecasts Wall Street&#8217;s S&#38;P 500 2025 year-end projections have improved since tariff issues appeared more manageable, but wide disparities persist due to shifting trade policies and broader macroeconomic risks. Image: Yahoo Finance]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-effective-tariff-rate/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jul 2025 08:30:36 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=10794</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth Over the next three years, higher tariffs are expected to slow U.S. GDP growth by 1.7%, as they raise costs for consumers and businesses, fuel inflation, and drag on economic expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>Effective vs. Statutory U.S. Tariff Rates</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-tariff-rates-are-now-higher-than-developed-market-countries-approaching-emerging-countries/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jul 2025 08:30:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=4788</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Effective vs. Statutory U.S. Tariff Rates While statutory tariff rates have jumped following swift policy changes, the effective tariff rate—the actual rate paid on imports—lags because of delayed enforcement, stockpiling, shifting trade routes, and ongoing uncertainty. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/broad-trade-weighted-u-s-dollar-forecast/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jul 2025 08:30:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Amid trade-related uncertainty and tariffs weighing on U.S. growth and investor sentiment, Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. dollar to decline further, potentially providing a tailwind for mega-cap tech stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>U.S. Effective Tariff Rate</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/inflation-tariff-implementation-period/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jul 2025 08:31:52 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=70879</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[U.S. Effective Tariff Rate A 19% rise in the effective U.S. tariff rate would significantly slow economic growth and sharply increase recession risk, with broad spillover effects on inflation, employment, and overall business confidence. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>S&#038;P 500, as Reported EPS and Forecast</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/earnings-sp-500-ntm-eps/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jul 2025 08:31:14 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=84565</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[S&#038;P 500, as Reported EPS and Forecast Analysts currently do not anticipate an outright profit downturn for corporate America, but compelling reasons suggest that earnings growth may slow, particularly due to the impact of tariffs. Image: TS Lombard]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>Share of U.S. Corporate Profits from Foreign Markets</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/share-of-u-s-corporate-profits-from-foreign-markets/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jul 2025 08:30:41 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=51601</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Share of U.S. Corporate Profits from Foreign Markets Foreign markets account for 13% of US corporate profits, while emerging markets contribute 4%. Yet, trade uncertainties and recent tariffs may threaten these contributions moving forward. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
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		<title>Inflation &#8211; U.S. CPI Deviation from Consensus</title>
		<link>https://www.isabelnet.com/inflation-u-s-cpi-consensus-forecasts/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[isabelnet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jul 2025 08:30:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.isabelnet.com/?p=73109</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Inflation &#8211; U.S. CPI Deviation from Consensus A series of lower-than-expected inflation readings gives the administration greater economic leeway to pursue higher tariffs, driven by the (possibly mistaken) belief that U.S. consumers will be largely insulated from their effects. Image: Deutsche Bank]]></description>
		
		
		
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