Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) and 10-Year Spread (Leading Indicator) The 10-year spread (Euro vs. U.S. dollar swap rates) tends to lead EUR/USD by 22 days. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield and Tapering Period Could investors see a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 CAPE Valuation and Following 10-Year Annualized Returns Since 1950 Does valuation still matter in the long run? Elevated CAPE ratio suggests anemic stock market returns over the next 10 years (R² = 0.467 since 1950). Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. 10-Year Yields After Breaking to New 6-Month High Since 2000 Should investors expect higher U.S. 10-year Treasury yields on expectations that the U.S. economy’s recovery will be faster than expected? Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.10% by the end of 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – World Technology 12-Month Forward Earnings Yield and 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Plus 2.5 Tech stocks are less attractive, as the world tech 12-month forward earnings yield is still below the 10-year Treasury bond yield plus 2.5. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The relative advantage that the S&P 500 dividend yield has held over the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has completely disappeared. Image: Piper Sandler
ISM YoY and U.S. 2+10-Year Bond Yield YoY (Leading Indicator) The U.S. 2+10-year bond yield YoY (inverted) tends to lead the ISM YoY by 18 months, suggesting that the growth momentum is expected to continue until August 2021. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve Slope and U.S. 10-Year Rates (3-Month Implied Volatility) U.S. 10-year rates volatility is higher with stepper U.S. 2s10s yield curve. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
VIX and U.S. 10-Year Yield Despite rising interest rates, the VIX has returned to a more normal level which is a good sign for stocks. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC