1987 Market Crash – DXY Dollar Index and 10-Year UST Yield Bond yields rarely rise while the dollar falls, as higher yields usually boost currency appeal. This unusual trend signals waning confidence, similar to the pattern seen before the 1987 Black Monday crash. Image: Bloomberg
Gold vs. 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Gold is increasingly being positioned as an alternative to U.S. Treasury bonds. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Annualized 10-Year Total Return Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts a 3% average annualized total return for the S&P 500 over the next decade. This projection is notably lower than historical averages, driven by worries about elevated equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The S&P 500 has fallen about 5% in the past month, but 10-year U.S. Treasury yields haven’t changed much. This unusual pattern suggests that Treasuries might be losing some of their effectiveness as a hedge against stock market declines. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation – U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Rate The declining U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation rate indicates that market participants expect inflation to moderate, aligning with the Fed’s 2% long-term target. Image: The Daily Shot
Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations While markets can sustain high CAPE ratios for extended periods, history suggests these elevated valuations often precede eras of subdued stock returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
Equal-Weight vs. Aggregate S&P 500 Annualized 10-Year Returns Given the high concentration in today’s S&P 500, long-term investors may benefit from considering an equal-weight strategy in the current market environment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield This chart shows a good correlation between Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and 10-year Treasury yield. Lower yields ahead? You may also like “For the Last Few Years, Equity Markets Have Been Leading Bond Markets.” Image: Yardeni Research, Inc.
Debt-to-GDP and 10-Year Government Bond Yield While it might seem intuitive that higher debt burdens would lead to higher yields due to increased risk, this relationship has not held true in practice. Yields are influenced by multiple economic factors, not just debt levels. Image: BCA Research
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Since the 2008 global financial crisis, U.S. breakeven inflation has closely tracked crude oil prices, reflecting the significant impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation expectations and overall economic conditions. Image: Bloomberg
Long History of U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Despite expectations of rate cuts, U.S. interest rates could move in either direction, depending on inflation and Fed decisions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge