S&P 500 Market Concentration vs. 10-Year Annualized Forward Returns

S&P 500 Market Concentration vs. 10-Year Annualized Forward Returns High concentration in the S&P 500 may boost short-term performance, but it often signals lower future returns, particularly during non-recessionary periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations

Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations While a high CAPE ratio can persist for extended periods without triggering an immediate market correction, historical data suggests that such elevated valuations often precede periods of lower stock market returns. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs has projected that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 3.85% by the end of 2024, a forecast that stands in stark contrast to prevailing futures market expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Distribution of Forecast 10-Year Annualized S&P 500 Returns

Forecast 10-Year Annualized S&P 500 Returns Based on the 10-year annualized total return forecast distribution, there’s a 72% likelihood that the S&P 500 will underperform Treasury bonds, and a 33% probability that equities will generate returns below inflation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields

Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields The S&P 500 typically struggles when U.S. Treasury yields rise quickly. This is largely due to decreased stock valuation multiples, especially for high-priced mega-cap growth companies that thrive in low-rate environments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

10-Year Turnover of S&P 500 Constituents

10-Year Turnover of S&P 500 Constituents Over a typical 10-year period, 36% of S&P 500 constituents experience turnover. This level of turnover is significant, highlighting the challenges of tracking long-term performance for individual firms within the index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The copper-to-gold ratio is often considered a leading indicator for the direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield under certain market conditions. Image: The Daily Shot

10-Year Annualized S&P 500 Returns

10-Year Annualized S&P 500 Returns Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 will achieve an average annualized return of only 3% in the coming decade, considerably below historical norms, reflecting concerns about high equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Equal-Weight vs. Aggregate S&P 500 10-Year Trailing Relative Returns

Equal-Weight vs. Aggregate S&P 500 10-Year Trailing Relative Returns Current market conditions suggest that investors might benefit from considering an equal-weight strategy for the S&P 500, especially in light of the significant concentration observed in the index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Distribution of 10-Year S&P 500 Annualized Returns

Distribution of 10-Year S&P 500 Annualized Returns Goldman Sachs projects a modest average annualized total return of 3% for the S&P 500 over the next decade, considerably below historical averages, reflecting concerns about high equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research