Average Global Equities Returns Depending on Absolute Moves in U.S. 10-Year Yieldss Big moves in bond yields rarely go unnoticed by equities. A rapid rise in yields can act as a red flag for stocks, as investors push for greater compensation to stay exposed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1-Month Rolling Correlation of 10-Year UST Yield Change and S&P 500 Returns Since the start of the Middle East conflict, U.S. Treasuries have struggled to play their traditional diversification role. The one-month rolling correlation between 10-year yields and equitie returns has sunk to a multi-decade low. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no fixed relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation changes over time, driven by inflation dynamics, rate expectations, and shifts in credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields vs. New Fed Chair 10-year U.S. Treasury yields often push higher in the first six months after a new Fed chair takes office, as markets adjust to a new policy regime. Leadership changes cloud the outlook, and markets price in that uncertainty. Image: TS Lombard
Excess CAPE Yield and Subsequent 10-Year Real Return The excess CAPE yield, which measures the gap between bond yields and the inverse of the P/E ratio, indicates that U.S. stocks look pricey, making now a tough entry point for buyers. The risk/reward looks thin at these levels. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Index and BB to 10-Year Treasury Spread Keeping an eye on the junk to Treasury bond spread can reveal how healthy the U.S. market really is, and where it might be going next. The bond market usually sends signals before stocks react. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance After Oil Shocks Historically, sharp oil‑price spikes have often, but not always, been followed by weaker bond performance because higher energy costs push headline inflation and expectations of future inflation higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often fade faster than people expect. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Congressional Budget Office Forecast of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The Congressional Budget Office sees the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edging higher over the next few years as swelling federal debt puts upward pressure on borrowing costs. Deficits have a price. Image: Deutsche Bank
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield U.S. Treasuries ended a stellar 2025, but few expect a repeat this year. Lower rates may offer some support, but heavy debt issuance, sticky inflation, and ongoing fiscal spending could keep long-end yields from falling much further. Image: Bloomberg
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When US Treasury yields rise quickly, equity valuations usually fall hardest among high-growth, richly priced names. One risk for 2026 is a sudden jump in interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research