10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar’s decline amid rising Treasury yields signals concerns over U.S. fiscal health, reduced foreign demand for debt, and geopolitical risks, reflecting a shift in investor confidence and the dollar’s role as a global safe haven. Image: Bloomberg

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Fair Value

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Fair Value The fair value model for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, based on market variables, suggests a fair value close to 3.9%. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Term Premium

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Term Premium The increasing term premium signals that investors require greater compensation for the risks inherent in holding longer-term bonds, reflecting increased concerns about interest rate and inflation over longer durations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield

S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The recent rally has made U.S. equities relatively expensive compared to bonds. Historically, when the risk premium has been at current levels, the S&P 500 has delivered an average 12-month return of only 2.5% over the past three decades. Image: Bloomberg

Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations

Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations While high CAPE ratios can persist in markets for years, history suggests these elevated valuations often precede eras of subdued stock returns. Image: Real Investment Advice

Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield

Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no consistently clear or stable relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation is dynamic and shaped by various economic factors, including inflation, interest rates, and credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public Even with U.S. federal debt at historic highs and projected to rise further, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains low compared to the high-inflation periods of the past half-century. Image: Deutsche Bank