Gold and U.S. 10-Year Real Rates

Gold and U.S. 10-Year Real Rates U.S. real interest rates have typically had an inverse relationship with the price of gold, as investors tend to shift their investments between gold and interest-bearing assets based on the opportunity cost of holding gold. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. 10-Year Real Rate

U.S. 10-Year Real Rate A potential rise in U.S. real rates could cause the collapse of the AI bubble, leading to turbulence in the stock market. Overvalued AI companies facing declines could trigger widespread market instability, eroding investor confidence. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.00% by the end of 2024, which differs very slightly from the expectations of the futures market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations

Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations A high CAPE ratio can persist for extended periods without causing a market correction, but historical data suggests that such periods of elevated valuations are usually followed by lower stock market returns. Image: Real Investment Advice

Real Market Cap to GDP Ratio vs. Expected 10-Year Forward Returns

Real Market Cap to GDP Ratio vs. Expected 10-Year Forward Returns The current elevated inflation-adjusted market capitalization to GDP ratio suggests the likelihood of anemic returns for the U.S. stock market over the next 10 years. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart BofA expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise to 4.25%-4.5% in Q1 or H1, before falling back to 3.25% by the end of 2024. Image: BofA Global Research

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value BofA’s macroeconomic framework indicates a fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 4.1%. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Rates – 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecasts

U.S. Rates – 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecasts BofA still forecasts the 10-year UST yield at 4.25% and the 2-year UST yield at 4.00% by year-end 2024, suggesting the possibility of a downward trend in borrowing costs. Image: BofA Global Research