S&P 500 Earnings Growth – Consensus vs. Historical Norms Historically, S&P 500 earnings have risen 6.5% annually. The 18.6% call for 2026 is more than twice that rate, and forecasts for 2027 still around 16%. That kind of optimism tends to look compelling right up until it doesn’t. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Earnings Revision Breadth The relationship isn’t perfect, but S&P 500 EPS revision breadth has often led market moves, showing a strong historical link with the index’s six‑month trailing returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings & Estimates and Earnings Growth Trend Line S&P 500 earnings have significantly outpaced historical growth trends. If profits start to slip in the coming quarters, richly valued stocks could face a sharp reckoning. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates Optimism for 2026 earnings remains high after years of market gains and profit growth, but history shows confidence tends to waver once forecasts meet reality. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Based on Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E The S&P 500’s earnings yield, based on Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E, sits near century lows. But if history is any guide, valuations can defy gravity for years. Just remember the late ’90s. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield With the S&P 500 equity risk premium slipping below zero, markets are flashing a warning: risk isn’t being rewarded anymore. Image: Bloomberg
Contribution of Sector Groups to S&P 500 Earnings Growth MCG and Tech have all but carried the market lately, fueling nearly 90% of the S&P 500’s earnings growth. Wall Street’s climb is still a tech‑powered story, with breadth across other sectors stubbornly missing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Morgan Stanley forecasts S&P 500 earnings per share to hit $271 in 2025 and $303 in 2026, indicating a bullish market outlook. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Nominal S&P 500 Earnings Growth – Nominal GDP Growth The rapid acceleration of U.S. corporate earnings growth over the past three decades, which has outpaced the broader U.S. economy, is a key factor behind today’s high market valuations—a trend that may persist. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Earnings and Gross Buybacks With U.S. corporate earnings on the rise, share buybacks in 2025 are expected to exceed $1 trillion. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Breadth and S&P 500 YoY Performance The divergence between earnings revisions and S&P 500 performance suggests that investors are looking beyond current analyst estimates, potentially betting on stronger-than-expected corporate performance. Image: Morgan Stanley Research