S&P 500 and Prediction Market Odds of the End to the Iran Conflict U.S. stocks advanced as the geopolitical mood brightened. The S&P 500 has followed every twist in expectations around the Iran conflict. Right now, sentiment is in the driver’s seat, not fundamentals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets are quick to price in fear. The S&P 500 usually dips when conflict erupts, but it often manages to recover its losses as long as demand and earnings remain strong. Short-term fear rarely changes the long-term story. Image: Real Investment Advice
Price Performance of Gold Before and After the Start of Armed Conflicts When conflict breaks out in the Middle East, gold typically shines as a tactical safe haven, with prices jumping as traders add a geopolitical risk premium. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Europe – Equity Performance During Recent Conflicts If there is no recession, european stocks tend to do well after the start of armed conflicts. Image: Charles Schwab
S&P 500 – Equity Performance During Past Conflicts, Since WWII Historically, the impact of past conflicts on U.S. stocks has tended to be short-lived since WWII. Image: J.P. Morgan
Average Price Performance of Gold, Oil and Base Metals during Four Military Conflicts This chart shows the average price performance of gold, oil and base metals during the following military conflicts: 1980 Iran-Iraq War, 1990 Gulf War, 2003 Iraq War, 2011 NATO-led military intervention in Libya. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Dow Jones Annual Change with All Major Conflicts since WWI Chart showing how the Dow Jones has behaved in times of conflict. The best annual return took place during WWI. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
US-China Trade War and Past Major Trade Conflicts In the past, tariffs were in place for long periods of time. The US-China trade war is hitting global growth, by his importance, size and scope. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in Consensus 2026 S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 EPS forecasts for 2026 surged, with upward revisions accelerating after the U.S.–Iran conflict erupted, even as geopolitical and macro risks climbed. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Crude Oil (USO) Oil and yields have moved together since the Middle East conflict started in February. But that correlation often weakens once tensions cool. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The S&P 500’s reaction to the Middle East conflict has shifted from one of the weakest after a geopolitical shock to one of the strongest, as investors moved past the selloff and priced in a lower risk of major disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation