Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets are quick to price in fear. The S&P 500 usually dips when conflict erupts, but it often manages to recover its losses as long as demand and earnings remain strong. Short-term fear rarely changes the long-term story. Image: Real Investment Advice
Price Performance of Gold Before and After the Start of Armed Conflicts When conflict breaks out in the Middle East, gold typically shines as a tactical safe haven, with prices jumping as traders add a geopolitical risk premium. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Europe – Equity Performance During Recent Conflicts If there is no recession, european stocks tend to do well after the start of armed conflicts. Image: Charles Schwab
S&P 500 – Equity Performance During Past Conflicts, Since WWII Historically, the impact of past conflicts on U.S. stocks has tended to be short-lived since WWII. Image: J.P. Morgan
Average Price Performance of Gold, Oil and Base Metals during Four Military Conflicts This chart shows the average price performance of gold, oil and base metals during the following military conflicts: 1980 Iran-Iraq War, 1990 Gulf War, 2003 Iraq War, 2011 NATO-led military intervention in Libya. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Dow Jones Annual Change with All Major Conflicts since WWI Chart showing how the Dow Jones has behaved in times of conflict. The best annual return took place during WWI. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
US-China Trade War and Past Major Trade Conflicts In the past, tariffs were in place for long periods of time. The US-China trade war is hitting global growth, by his importance, size and scope. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance After March’s flight to safety, April has seen U.S. equity fund managers tiptoe back into risk. But sentiment remains cautious, with market appetite still muted as the Middle East conflict keeps investors on edge. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns The conflict in the Middle East has added a layer of uncertainty, but U.S. stocks tend to find traction in the back half of April. That seasonal boost helps, but it doesn’t fully blunt the shock of the conflict. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The boost from the 2025 fiscal bill may be short-lived, as the conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and curbs U.S. growth prospects. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates The Middle East conflict hasn’t rattled Wall Street. Analysts still expect S&P 500 earnings to rise 18% in 2026 and 16% in 2027, while small caps could post a 44% profit surge this year and another 32% next. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research