Search Results for: soft data

Hard Data vs. Soft Data The notable divergence between soft and hard economic data highlights the challenge of interpreting the true state of the economy. While sentiment surveys suggest caution, hard data has yet to confirm a significant slowdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Consumers (Housing and Retail) vs. Confidence (Soft Data) Chart showing the large divergence between global hard data and confidence (soft data). Confidence still refuses to rebound. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Inflation, Hard Data and Soft Data Hard data are back above long-run averages. But the chart clearly shows the divergence between hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data U.S. hard data is improving, but the chart shows the current divergence between U.S. hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession. But if services begin to crack, things could shift quickly. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Current Activity Indicator U.S. soft data and growth signals have improved slightly, largely due to a more favorable trade policy outlook following the partial rollback of tariffs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…

U.S. Big Tech’s Capital Expenditures Tech titans Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft plan to spend $650 billion this year into AI data centers, chips, and infrastructure, up 60% from last year as the race for AI dominance intensifies despite mounting execution risks. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 vs. Liquidity Index A slowdown in liquidity growth—particularly if combined with soft economic data—poses a short-term risk to the U.S. equity market, increasing volatility and the likelihood of price declines. Image: TS Lombard