Search Results for: soft data

Hard Data vs. Soft Data The notable divergence between soft and hard economic data highlights the challenge of interpreting the true state of the economy. While sentiment surveys suggest caution, hard data has yet to confirm a significant slowdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Consumers (Housing and Retail) vs. Confidence (Soft Data) Chart showing the large divergence between global hard data and confidence (soft data). Confidence still refuses to rebound. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Inflation, Hard Data and Soft Data Hard data are back above long-run averages. But the chart clearly shows the divergence between hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data U.S. hard data is improving, but the chart shows the current divergence between U.S. hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A “soft recession” occurs when the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracts while services remain robust, leading to a period of slower economic activity. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Current Activity Indicator U.S. soft data and growth signals have improved slightly, largely due to a more favorable trade policy outlook following the partial rollback of tariffs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast was revised downward to 1.92% from 2.06% last week, suggesting a softer outlook for economic growth. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge

Global Stocks – MSCI ACWI Index Resilient economic data, a softer stance on tariffs, and optimism in technology sectors have driven global stocks to new highs, even as trade jitters persist. Image: Bloomberg