Keyword: soft data

Global Consumers (Housing and Retail) vs. Confidence (Soft Data) Chart showing the large divergence between global hard data and confidence (soft data). Confidence still refuses to rebound. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Inflation, Hard Data and Soft Data Hard data are back above long-run averages. But the chart clearly shows the divergence between hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Hard Data and Soft Data U.S. hard data is improving. But the chart still shows the large divergence between U.S. hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data U.S. hard data is improving, but the chart shows the current divergence between U.S. hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…