U.S. Unemployment Rate Before, During and at the End of Recessions The U.S. unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. It is not a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
GDP and Unemployment During U.S. Recessions The severity of a U.S. recession can be measured by the duration and magnitude of the increase in unemployment rate and the decline in real GDP. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve A steepening U.S. yield curve has preceded recessions. Will the U.S. unemployment rate start to rise by the end of 2023? Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Forward EPS vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Weakness in S&P 500 earnings is a potential indicator of a higher U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Average Annualized 1-Month Real Total S&P 500 Return and U.S. Unemployment Rate A low U.S. unemployment rate can be seen as a negative for U.S. stocks. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Delinquencies, Personal Saving Rate and Unemployment Delinquencies in the United States are on the rise. Is a hard landing coming? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot
Performance – U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. UST 10-Year vs. S&P 500 Price Relative Bonds tend to outperform stocks in a recessionary labor market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy