MSCI AC World EPS Wall Street is pushing up MSCI AC World EPS targets for 2026 and 2027, betting AI’s surge will lift margins instead of sparking another capex boom-and-bust. So where’s the bubble: in earnings or just the hype? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
South Korea Exports vs. MSCI World EPS South Korea’s exports tend to lead global earnings. Image: J.P. Morgan
Japan Corporate Profits Leads MSCI World EPS This chart suggests that Japan corporate profits leads MSCI World EPS by 7 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Largest Contributors to the YTD Change in NTM EPS for MSCI AC World Most of the Technology sector’s positive earnings revisions have come from its more cyclical areas, particularly semiconductors and related hardware. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings – Global Manufacturing PMI New Orders vs. World Trailing 12-Month EPS (Leading Indicator) Global manufacturing PMI new orders tend to lead world EPS growth by 12 months. Image: BofA Global Research
Trailing 12 Month EPS Growth: S&P 500 vs. MSCI AC World ex U.S. Chart suggesting that the “fundamental” advantage of U.S. stocks is diminishing. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Forward EPS and World Trade Growth The chart shows a pretty good correlation between the S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS and the CPB World Trade Index. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
World Semiconductor Sales and S&P 500 EPS Tight relationship between world semiconductor sales and S&P 500 earnings per share. You may also like “Semiconductor Sales vs. Global Earnings per Share.” Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Tech – 3-Month Change in Price vs. 3-Month Change in FY2 EPS Until recently, U.S. tech earnings and stock returns have run hand in hand. With the correlation breaking down, dips are looking more like entry points, supported by solid growth prospects tied to AI adoption. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI World Fwd PE and EPS Revisions Downward revisions in global EPS raise concerns, suggesting that the global economic landscape is precarious, prompting central banks to adopt more aggressive strategies to stimulate growth. Image: J.P. Morgan