When Will the U.S. Economy Go into Recession? The majority of FMS investors do not currently expect a U.S. recession in the next 18 months, while only 8% foresee one in the second half of 2024 and 35% predict a recession in 2025. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Economy A recent Deutsche Bank survey found that 45% of participants predict a “no-landing” scenario for the U.S. economy by the end of 2024. This suggests no recession and inflation will remain above the Fed’s 2% target. Image: Deutsche Bank
Probabilities of the U.S. Economy Entering Recession in the Following Periods The probability of a U.S. recession in H1 2023 is rising. Image: Morgan Stanley
Consumer Expectations – What Do You Expect of the U.S. Economy over the Next 12 Months? Most American consumers are not very optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next 12 months. Image: BofA Global Research
Goods and Services Split for U.S. Economy and S&P 500 Earnings Cooling demand for goods could hit U.S. stocks. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
U.S. Election – Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden and the U.S. Economy Americans think that Donald Trump will be better for the U.S. economy if he is re-elected rather than if Joe Biden is elected. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Election – Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump and the U.S. Economy Americans believe that Donald Trump will be a little better for the U.S. economy than Joe Biden. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Economy – Exports and Imports Annual Growth In May, US exports sank to 11-year low, and imports dropped as demand for goods slows. Image: Oxford Economics
Recovery of the U.S. Economy – Republicans vs. Democrats Republicans and Democrats have different views on the recovery of the U.S. economy. Republicans are eager to reopen economy, while Democrats are more cautious. Image: Financial Times
Coronavirus Crisis and Reopening the U.S. Economy This map shows which states are reopening amid the coronavirus pandemic. Image: Bloomberg
Number of Months U.S. Economy in Recession Since 1918, the average U.S. recession has lasted about 13 months. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research