S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction A decline in margin debt has historically signaled impending market turbulence, as margin debt levels often reflect investor confidence and risk appetite. Image: Topdown Charts
Consensus Estimated Margin Growth Slower economic growth and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in S&P 500 margin estimates later this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Profit Margin – Operating Earnings/Sales S&P 500’s profit margins for 2025 face significant risks from tariffs and rising import costs, which could undermine the current optimistic consensus forecasts. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Excluding Financials) The S&P 500 net profit margins are at high levels. As AI adoption accelerates, it’s likely to have a transformative impact on profit margins across various industries, with the technology sector at the forefront of this trend. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. Margin Debt Margin debt boosts market gains as investors leverage their positions to increase buying power. A reliable warning sign for reducing portfolio risk occurs when margin balances drop below the 12-month moving average. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Stock Market – Margin Debt and Free Cash Balances The record surge in margin debt reflects heightened risk-taking among investors. If retail enthusiasm persists, this trend may continue, but elevated margin debt levels could amplify market volatility. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Profit Margin Profit margin growth in the S&P 500 is broadening, extending beyond mega-caps and the tech sector. This trend is expected to continue in 2025, indicating a healthier and more diverse market outlook. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Operating Margin S&P 500 aggregate margins have reached a nine-quarter high, with further expansion expected in upcoming quarters, signaling a potentially positive profitability outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Margins Ex-Financials Forecasts suggest that S&P 500’s net margins are poised to rise over the next few quarters, potentially reaching new highs in 2025, indicating a favorable outlook for profitability. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Index – Estimated Next 12-Month Operating Margin The decline in S&P 500 operating margins excluding the Magnificent Seven persists, suggesting that margin headwinds could remain challenging. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Operating Margin After the COVID-19 pandemic, the operating margins of companies in the S&P 500 have returned to a state of normalcy, leading to a positive trend of improved profitability and cash flows for these companies. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management