Housing Usually Heats Up in the Summer

Housing Usually Heats Up in the Summer This great chart shows that U.S. home sales usually heats up in the summer. Picture source: Leonard Kiefer

U.S. Housing Starts Fall 0.3% in March from the Prior Month

U.S. Housing Starts Fall 0.3% in March from the Prior Month Usually, a continued downturn may signal a contraction of the economy. And historically, a decline in residential real estate has led several recessions, but housing is already in a slump, so it shouldn’t cause a recession.

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown?

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? If history helps us to predict the future, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1.Today, it stands at 1.28 and is rising, suggesting a recession is not imminent. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of…

Are We Near a Recession?

Are We Near a Recession? “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply…

Is Residential Investment a Drag Since the Great Recession?

Is Residential Investment a Drag Since the Great Recession? Indeed, it is very low compared to other business cycles. And because housing is already in a slump relative to other economic cycles, it shouldn’t cause a recession. Picture source: Blackrock