10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value According to BofA’s macroeconomic framework, the fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is estimated to be between 4.25% and 4.3%. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Dollar Index and Purchasing Power Parity Fair Value According to the measure of Purchasing Power Parity fair value, the U.S. dollar remains overvalued. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Fair Value According to BofA, the fair value of the S&P 500 is 3,911 by year-end 2023 (bear case, based on the most bearish model). Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Dollar DXY Index Deviation from PPP Fair Value and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Return The U.S. dollar weakness is likely to persist. Image: BCA Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Fair Value Model How much higher could bond yields potentially go before they peak? Image: Alpine Macro
Oil Prices – Fair Value as a Function of the U.S. Dollar and Global Growth How long will oil prices continue to deviate from fair value? Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 DDM-Implied Fair Value Goldman Sachs forecasts the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 1.6% by the end of 2021 and the S&P 500 to reach 4,700 (base case scenario). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 “Fair Values” According to ISM Levels If the ISM drops to 50 by the end of 2021, the “fair value” of the S&P 500 would be 3730. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Real Effective U.S. Dollar and Fair Value Is the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar the beginning of a large move? Image: Alpine Macro
Small Caps Valuation – Russell 2000 “Fair Value” Is the massive outperformance of small caps coming to an end? Image: Morgan Stanley Research