S&P 500 Return – Equity Market Trends Around U.S. Capital Gains Tax Rate Hikes Equity prices tend to decline around U.S. capital gains tax hikes, but are likely to be short-lived. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Performance After The First Fed Rate Hike Historically, the S&P 500 Index tends to do well after the first Fed rate hike. Image: LPL Financial LLC
Interest Rates – Rate Hikes vs. Rate Cuts and Global PMI Manufacturing Global manufacturing PMI levels are screaming for policy tightening. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Interest Rates – Fed Rate Hike Markets are now pricing in at least one rate hike in the first quarter of 2023, based on expectations for higher inflation and strong growth. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Interest Rates – Fed Rate Hikes Is the market overpricing odds of Fed rate hike? Image: J.P. Morgan
Net Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes / Cuts Central banks haven’t cut this much since the global financial crisis. Image: BofA
Number of Fed Rate Hikes/Cuts Expected Over Next 12 Months Fed funds futures imply two further rate cuts over the next 12 months. Image: Credit Suisse Research
Impact of U.S. Corporate Tax Hike on S&P 500 This table suggests the impact on the S&P 500 if Joe Biden won the election and the Democrats swept both houses of Congress. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Break-Even Inflation Rate On 10-Year TIPS and Fed Rate Cut (Hike) If inflation expectations continue to fall or remain low, the Fed could probably cut rates further. Image: Gavekal
Estimated S&P 500 2022 Earnings Impact Based on 25% Tax Rate Have markets priced in Biden’s tax hikes? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy