Demographics – U.S. 10-Year Rate, Labor Force Growth and Nominal GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the current trend in labor force growth and nominal GDP growth points to higher rates. Picture source: Swedbank Research
Labor Force Participation Rate for 65-69 Year-Olds in Selected Countries This chart shows the huge disparity in employment rates for 65-69 year-olds across different countries. Picture source: Statista
U.S. Labor Force vs. Inflation The chart shows the enduring link between labor force and inflation. The chart also suggests that U.S. labor force leads U.S. CPI by three years. Demographic trends imply subdued inflation. You may also like “World Population & Demographics – More People Over 65 than Under 5 for the First Time.”…
Civilian Labor Force Growth vs. Inflation since 1962 This chart suggests that civilian labor force growth leads CPI by four years. Picture source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great? Well, the unemployment level is the lowest since 1969, but when we compare the level of unemployment plus people not in the labor force, to the level of employment, the picture is not so rosy. Ouch!
Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons: – not fast-rising money supply – globalization: inflation is a global phenomenon – lack of wage acceleration – increase in…
