Valuation – Market Capitalization of Stock Market / M2 Money Supply U.S. market capitalization has surged since late 2022, lifting valuations far beyond what M2 growth alone can explain. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Gold Net Long Managed Money on COMEX Rising speculative positioning in gold signals increased bullishness but also raises the risk of a short-term pullback, as prices often correct after speculative positions become excessively extended. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets vs. Federal Funds Effective Rate U.S. money market funds typically experience asset inflows during rate hikes but see outflows approximately 12 months after the Fed initiates rate cuts. Image: Real Investment Advice
China’s Stock Performance – CSI 300 Index vs. M1 Money Sypply YoY Growth The growth rate of the M1 money supply, a key driver of liquidity and investment capacity, tends to correlate with China’s stock market. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Money Supply M2 The pickup in the U.S. M2 money supply matters because it signals increasing liquidity that—if excessive relative to economic output and accompanied by rising velocity—could reignite inflationary pressures. Image: Deutsche Bank
M2 Money Supply Growth U.S. money supply growth has robustly returned to near its long-term trend. In contrast, the euro area has experienced a slight slowdown in money supply growth recently, although growth rates remain positive. Image: Deutsche Bank
Money Market Fund Assets as a Percent of S&P 500 Market Capitalization Despite record levels of cash in money market funds, cash on the sidelines is not elevated relative to the S&P 500 market capitalization. In fact, the ratio of money market funds assets to S&P 500 market cap is near historic lows. Image: J.P.…
Money Market Fund Assets While the $7 trillion in money market funds is frequently cited as potential fuel for equities and risk assets, most evidence suggests this cash is primarily a result of yield optimization and prudent cash management. Image: Bloomberg
Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Smart Money Flow Index The Smart Money Flow Index currently suggests that the most probable short-term direction for the U.S. stock market is upward. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets U.S. money market fund assets hit a new all-time high of $8.2 tn, reflecting a continued trend of investors seeking safety and yield. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Money Market Fund Assets Global money market fund assets hit a new all-time high of $9.7 tn, highlighting the perceived security and attractiveness of these funds as a viable approach for temporarily storing and increasing capital. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research