S&P 500 Earnings Growth – Consensus vs. Historical Norms Historically, S&P 500 earnings have risen 6.5% annually. The 18.6% call for 2026 is more than twice that rate, and forecasts for 2027 still around 16%. That kind of optimism tends to look compelling right up until it doesn’t. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events Major geopolitical shocks can rattle investors, but U.S. stocks have a long track record of bouncing back, with median six‑month gains over 5% since World War II. Staying invested often pays off after the dust settles. Image: Carson Investment Research
Historical Length of Recoveries and Subsequent Market Declines Every U.S. expansion since 1871 has hit a wall, and markets have stumbled hard each time. The current bull run, born out of the March 2020 lows, will be no exception—only a matter of when, not if. Image: Real Investment Advice
Historical U.S. Tariff Rate and Implied Rate Based on Latest Announcements If the average effective U.S. tariff rate rises to 20.7%, the economic impact could be substantial. Each 1 percentage point increase in the tariff rate is estimated to reduce economic growth by 0.05 percentage point. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Historical FY2 EPS Revisions vs. Consensus EPS Recent downward revisions in S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2024-25 reflect a cautious approach from analysts, primarily driven by economic uncertainties. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
How U.S. Stocks Historically Do When the Incumbent President Doesn’t Run for Re-Election The tendency for U.S. stocks to perform well in years when the incumbent president chooses not to run for re-election can be attributed to decreased uncertainty surrounding future governance. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Total Return and Historical Inflation Peaks Historically, U.S. stocks have shown a tendency to increase when there is no recession following a peak in inflation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
What Is Your Current Equity Positioning or Sentiment in Historical Terms? The sentiment among JPMorgan clients as a whole is not optimistic when it comes to equities. Image: J.P. Morgan
Peak-to-Trough Declines in Historical Bear Markets Since 1929 A new bull market in U.S. stocks has officially begun, marking the end of the bear market. Image: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy
Historical U.S. Inflation Episodes Is it the last U.S. inflation peak of this cycle? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Distribution of Historical Stock and Bond Returns U.S. stocks and bonds both have suffered significant losses since the beginning of the year. Image: Alpine Macro