MSCI USA Cyclical Sectors-Defensive Sectors Spread USD Index vs. 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Curve This chart suggests that cyclical outperformance of defensives tends to be correlated with the shape of the 2-year/30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Corporate Bonds – Share of Market Value in Bloomberg Barclays USD IG (AAA, AA, A, BBB) Credit quality is deteriorating, as the amount of BBB-rated bonds, one step away from junk bonds, has doubled since 1990. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) This chart also suggests that the U.S. dollar remains relatively strong despite Fed action. Image: Alpine Macro
Largest Bailouts in History in 2020 USD vs. G7 Debt to GDP This chart shows the largest global bailout in history, as a response to the coronavirus crisis. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500, Treasury Bond, Global GDP, EUR/USD – Protracted Scenario Projections This table suggests protracted scenario projections. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Relative Performance of S&P 500 vs. Euro Stoxx 50 and EUR/USD EUR/USD fell to lowest level since May 2017. The growth differential should remain in favor of the US dollar. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
EUR/USD and Euro Area M3 Chart showing the correlation between the euro-area broad money supply (M3) and EUR/USD (inverted). Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Dollar Liquidity vs. EUR/USD The inflow of U.S. dollar into the financial system should continue to grow this year and tends to support the euro against the US dollar. Image: Saxo Bank
EUR/USD One Year Historical Volatility (U.S. Dollar and Euro) 2019 is a record low volatility in EUR/USD since 1999. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
U.S. Dollar and Euro – EUR/USD Forecast Investment banks expect the dollar to weaken against the euro in 2020. Image: Financial Times