Emerging Markets Monetary Policy vs. Economic Cycle (Leading Indicator) Chart suggesting that EM monetary policy easing is likely to increase economic activity in the coming months. Image: Topdown Charts
China’s Monetary Policy The Chinese banks’ reserve requirement ratio will be cut by 50 bps on January 6, to 12.5%. Image: Bianco Research
Economic Policy Uncertainty During U.S. Presidential Election Years Chart suggesting that historically, economic policy uncertainty is higher in U.S. presidential election years, particularly uncertainty related to tax policy. Image: Deutsche Bank
Historical Correlations of Asset Price Returns to Central Bank Net Cuts in Policy Rates The correlation between assets price returns and central bank rate cuts has been higher after the Great Financial Crisis. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Central Banks – Market Risk Trend and Economic Policy Trend Chart suggesting that risk assets’ sensitivity to political risks has been neutralized by central banks’ QE and dovish monetary policy stance. Image: Image: BofA Global Research
Monetary Policy and Fed Funds Rate According to market rates, monetary policy is more neutral than accommodative. Image: Danske Research
Trade War – S&P 500 Peaks and U.S. Trade Policy What is the likelihood of a trade deal between the U.S. and China? Past market peaks have been followed by major trade escalations. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
VIX and Fed Monetary Policy This year, the VIX average has been similar to 2018, despite Feds’ policy U-Turn in January. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Central Banks Main Policy Rate and Balance Sheet – Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets Many central banks are running low on ammunition to fight the next downturn, after a decade of cheap money. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Effect of Fiscal Policy on U.S. Real GDP Growth This chart suggests a negative effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research