Trade Policy Uncertainty

Trade Policy Uncertainty The rise in trade policy uncertainty significantly undermines investment confidence, disrupts trade flows, and hampers overall economic growth, highlighting the need for stable trade policies to foster a healthier global economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Policy Rate Forecasts

Policy Rate Forecasts Goldman Sachs’ 2025 forecast indicates a trend of continued monetary easing among major economies as central banks respond to evolving economic conditions while striving to stabilize growth and meet inflation targets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Interest Rates – Expectations for the Fed’s Policy Rate Path

Interest Rates – Expectations for the Fed’s Policy Rate Path Morgan Stanley expects more Fed rate cuts in the first half of 2025 than markets currently price in, as the impact of tariffs will likely hit the U.S. economy, despite inflationary risks. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

G10 Policy Rates

G10 Policy Rates The majority of G10 central banks are either currently cutting rates or are expected to start soon, reflecting a broader global disinflationary trend and changing economic conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Central Bank Policy Rate Changes

Central Bank Policy Rate Changes Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast regarding interest rate policies, suggesting significant declines in policy rates across most economies over the next 12 months, driven by easing inflation and slowing economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market – Current Pricing of Policy, Political and Macro Outcomes

Market – Current Pricing of Policy, Political and Macro Outcomes Investors are confidently predicting a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut on September 18, a 75% likelihood of Donald Trump winning the U.S. election on November 5, and a 68% probability of a soft landing within the next 12 months. Image: BofA Global Investment…

Global Policy Rate Hikes

Global Policy Rate Hikes In June 2024, for the first time since October 2020, no major central banks around the world raised interest rates, marking a significant shift in global monetary policies. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Interest Rates – Central Bank Policy Rate Hikes vs. Cuts

Interest Rates – Central Bank Policy Rate Hikes vs. Cuts Emerging market central banks typically take the lead in initiating monetary tightening and easing cycles. In 2024, their approach has shifted away from aggressive easing. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Fed – Number of Policy Rate Adjustments

Fed – Number of Policy Rate Adjustments Throughout history, the Federal Reserve has made decisions that are not influenced by the election cycle, as the central bank’s actions are predominantly guided by economic indicators and its dual mandate. Image: BofA Global Research