University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 9 months. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. Image: Deutsche Bank
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Current Conditions Index This index has been negative year-over-year for 8 consecutive months. This is rare outside of recession. Image: Pictet Asset Management
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This interesting chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 7 months (R = 0.95). Image: Paolo Cardena
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index History tells us that before a recession, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Democrats vs. Republicans This chart shows that Democrats and Republicans have a completely different view of the U.S. economy. Democrats see a recession coming and Republicans see economic growth. Image: John Kemp
Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Twitter Sentiment Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Despite strong economic performance, U.S. consumer confidence has shown improvements but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the recovery process is not yet complete. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Twitter Sentiment Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment The Goldman Sachs Twitter Sentiment Index suggests that U.S. consumer sentiment appears to be deteriorating. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index Hit a 15-Year High Last time, it hit this level was in May 1997 and January 2004. That’s good news, because this level suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is more sensitive to financial markets, whereas the Conference Board Index reflects labor market conditions. Image: J.P. Morgan
Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Image: Pictet…