President Trump Tweets Contribute to Volatility

President Trump Tweets Contribute to Volatility On days when President Trump tweets more than usual, the U.S. stock market tends to fall on average by 9bp. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch

S&P 500 Performance by President, from Reagan to Trump

S&P 500 Performance by President, from Reagan to Trump For President Trump, the stock market is a scorecard. This chart shows the S&P 500 performance across different presidencies, from Reagan to Trump. Picture source: Deutsche Bank

Does US Productivity Increase Under Trump?

Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under President Trump? The answer is yes, because businesses have invested. Even if Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend, that’s good news for the U.S. economy. Keep in mind that it is a key factor in extending the business cycle. US Productivity has increased, because US companies have invested,…

Trump Tweets About the Fed

Trump Tweets About the Fed The last trade escalation was also preceded by a flurry tweets from President Trump attacking the Fed. Picture source: Deutsche Bank

Trump Tweets: Unvertainty Retreats, But Still Elevated

Trump Tweets: Unvertainty Retreats, But Still Elevated Trump’s tweets exacerbate short-term volatility and can create unpredictable short-term market fluctuations. You may also like “How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market?“ Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market?

How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market? Trump’s tweets exacerbate short-term volatility and can create unpredictable short-term market fluctuations. That’s the reason why Warren Buffett stays focused rightly on the long term. Picture source: Bloomberg

Are US-China Trade Talks “Going Very Well” As Donald Trump Says?

Are US-China Trade Talks “Going Very Well” As Donald Trump Says? Well, in 2018, China was selling its US Treasury securities. In 2019, it’s just the opposite. Not bad! Why? It is not obvious, but China could use the dollars elsewhere, in Middle East countries for oil supplies, instead of buying US Treasury securities. Picture source: Ryan…

Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell?

Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible negative effects in the USA – And at full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP

S&P 500 Gap Risk

S&P 500 Gap Risk The S&P 500 Index is subject to significant gap risks under the Presidency of Donald Trump. Picture source: Hayek and Keynes