Federal Reserve Bank of New York Weekly Ecocomic Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield While the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield tends to follow the direction of macroeconomic indicators, it has decoupled from fundamentals. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet as Percent of Total U.S. Market Capitalization Don’t fight the Fed? The Fed’s balance sheet could peak at US$9 trillion in 2022. Image: Lohman Econometrics
Rates – 10-Year U.S. Breakeven Rate and Federal Reserve 10-Year U.S. Real Rate Should investors be worried about the risk of rising U.S. real rates? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Federal Reserve – Assets and Fed Funds Could the Federal Reserve raise interest rates later than expected? Image: BCA Research
Valuation – Federal Reserve Total Assets and S&P 500 Index Forward Price/Earnings Will Fed asset purchases continue to push valuations higher indefinitely? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 and Bank Reserves U.S. excess liquidity is expected to rise significantly and tends to push equities higher. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Fed Balance Sheet Total Reserves What is the risk of tapering? After Dec-13 tapering, the U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened considerably. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Dollar and Federal Reserve – ECB Shadow Rate Spread Is the U.S. dollar finding a support, as it tends to track the Fed – ECB shadow rate spread? Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet as % of GDP The Federal balance sheet is expected to expand by more than 40% of GDP. Image: BofA Global Research
Forecast – Federal Reserve Balance Sheet The Fed could start tapering asset purchases in Q1 2022. Image: BofA Global Research