U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Picture source: UBS

U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI

U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI This interesting chart suggests that the U.S. 10-year yield (2-year change) leads global PMI by 18 months. Source: Macrobond and Brandywine Global

Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread

Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread This chart shows the correlation between small bank lending and falling rates, and the negative effect of an inverted yield curve on small bank lending. Picture source: TS Lombard

The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years

The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years Is more volatility expected ahead? This chart suggests that the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX usually follows the U.S. 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury spread (inverted) with a 3-year lag. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research

Gold vs. Short-term Treasury Yield

Gold vs. Short-term Treasury Yield This chart shows the correlation between gold and 2-year treasury yield (inverse). Gold rises on slowing global growth and short-term treasury yield inverse. Picture source: Jeroen Blokland