KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is stable, and labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.
U.S. Labor Market Chart suggesting that the U.S. labor market is still strong and healthy. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
U.S. Labor Market: Jobs Gains and Jobless Claims The U.S. labor market is slowing, but historically, recessions have been preceded by a slowing in job gains and a pickup in jobless claims. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Labor Market Distributions Spider Chart The U.S. Labor Market Distributions Spider Chart shows broad labor market developments. Currently, the U.S. labor market is slipping a little.
Debt, Demographics and Labor Force Growth The slowdown in the labor force in the U.S., China, Europe and Japan, represents 62% of the world’s GDP and 69% of the equity market capitalization. The labor force growth is expected to be -1% by 2055. Image: Fidelity Investments
Probability of U.S. Recession in the Next Four Quarters U.S. recession risk continues to drift lower, thanks to favourable financial and labor market conditions. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims The current low level of initial jobless claims suggests that the U.S. labor market is tight. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal
U.S. Job Openings and Unemployment The U.S. labor market is very tight. There are still more open jobs than unemployed workers. Image: FactSet
U.S. Consumer Confidence and U.S. Unemployment A tight U.S. labor market and low interest rates should continue to support U.S. consumer confidence and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is more sensitive to financial markets, whereas the Conference Board Index reflects labor market conditions. Image: J.P. Morgan