NFIB Small Business Availability Loans vs. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Weak credit conditions, particularly when interest rates are high, can slow down the overall economy, leading to higher unemployment rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
NFIB Small Business Confidence Index The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index has fallen to 88.5, a level linked with recessions. This decline is concerning as it suggests small business owners are less optimistic about their businesses and the economy. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index High interest rates and inflation have dampened small businesses’ optimism. However, the anticipation of rate cuts and economic improvements may boost sentiment going forward. Image: BofA Global Research
NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks There is a good correlation between the annual rate of change in the NFIB Small Business Survey and U.S. small-cap stocks. Image: Real Investment Advice
Net % Bank Easing Standards for Small Business vs. NFIB Small Business Optimism Tighter lending standards have an impact on small business optimism. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Net Margin and NFIB Small Business Survey: Demand vs. Wage Cost Composite (Leading Indicator) Is there a risk of further decline in S&P 500 margins? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
NFIB Price Plans and U.S. Inflation NFIB Price Plans tend lead U.S. inflation by 3 months. Image: Andreas Steno and Macrobond
Recession – NFIB Sales Expectations U.S. small business sales expectations moved lower. This does not bode well for the U.S. economy. Image: The Daily Shot
NFIB Small Business Sentiment U.S. small business sentiment is a recessionary warning. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Fed Funds vs. NFIB Small Business Jobs Hard to Fill Historically, higher wage inflation is associated with higher Fed funds. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy