Probability of Global Recession
Probability of Global Recession The probability of a global recession among asset managers is greater than 50%. Picture source: Financial Times
Search Results for: global recession
When Will the Next Global Recession Begin?
When Will the Next Global Recession Begin? 55% of investors expect a global recession by 2020 and 45% in 2021 or later. Who is right? Picture source: Barclays Research
Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions
Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The chart shows that the U.S. business cycle drives global asset allocation and suggests a possible U.S. recession in 2020. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
Cumulative Fund Flows: Global Equities and Global Government & Corporate Bonds
Cumulative Fund Flows: Global Equities and Global Government & Corporate Bonds $339 billion in inflows to bond funds globally, and $208 billion in outflows from global equity funds in 2019, as investors fear a global recession is on the horizon. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession
Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession Investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, like 2007/2008. This chart suggests that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is high. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Recovery and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession
U.S. ISM Recovery and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession After a recession, U.S. equities tend to perform well during ISM recoveries. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Contraction and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession
U.S. ISM Contraction and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession If there is no recession, U.S. equities tend to perform well during ISM contractions. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Nominal GDP and Corporate Profits
Global Nominal GDP and Corporate Profits This chart shows the correlation and the slowdown in global growth and corporate profits. Historically, margin pressures have preceded the start of recessions. Picture source: J.P. Morgan
Global GDP and Brent Crude Oil Price
Global GDP and Brent Crude Oil Price High oil prices can cause recessions. Picture source: MarketWatch
GS Asia Bear Market Risk Indicator – Recession Risk
GS Asia Bear Market Risk Indicator – Recession Risk The GS Asia Bear Market Risk Indicator rose to 75% in August. Bear market risk is rising. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
