Global Recession Probability Model vs. MSCI ACWI NDR’s Global Recession Probability Model is at its lowest level in nearly four years, signaling a positive outlook for global equities. Image: Ned Davis Research
A History of Global Recessions and Causes Historically, banking crises, wars and pandemics cause global recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Global Recession Could the global recession last a long time? Image: Oxford Economics
Expected Duration of Global Recession This chart suggests the expected duration of the global recession based on survey data. Image: Oxford Economics
Global Oil Consumption as a % of GDP and Global Recessions Chart suggesting that Brent crude prices need to exceed US$117 to push the global economy into recession. Image: Financial Times
Fears of Global Recession The latest BofAML’s European credit investor survey shows that fears of global recession have risen to 42%. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Probability of Global Recession The probability of a global recession among asset managers is greater than 50%. Image: Financial Times
When Will the Next Global Recession Begin? 55% of investors expect a global recession by 2020 and 45% in 2021 or later. Who is right? Image: Barclays Research
Google Searches for “Global Financial Crisis” and “Great Recession” While fears of a 2025 tariff-driven recession evoke memories of 2008, some investors see today’s prevailing pessimism as a contrarian bullish signal for stocks. Historically, extreme bearish sentiment has often marked market bottoms. Image: CNBC
Global Equities Around Fed Cut With And Without Recession Strong performance in global equities is common after the Fed’s initial rate cut, particularly when the economy remains recession-free for the subsequent 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Stock to Bond Ratio and U.S. Recessions Should investors be worried that the global stock-to-bond ratio is rolling over? Image: MBR Partners