Global Debt by Sector and Recession Risk

Global Debt by Sector and Recession Risk With global growth slowing, this chart suggests that the biggest recession risk is corporate deleveraging. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability

Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession over the next twelve months stands at 18%, slightly above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Proportion of S&P 500 Firms Mentioning Recession during Quarterly Earnings Calls

Proportion of S&P 500 Firms Mentioning Recession during Quarterly Earnings Calls The proportion of S&P 500 firms mentioning “recession” in their earnings calls has risen sharply to 24%, signaling growing worries about an economic slowdown despite continued positive earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…

S&P 500 Index Declines Around Recessions

S&P 500 Index Declines Around Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen by a median 24% from peak-to-trough around economic recessions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research