Search Results for: global recession

Global Investment Research Financial Excess Monitor and Recessions The heat map suggests below-average imbalances in the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Debt by Sector and Recession Risk With global growth slowing, this chart suggests that the biggest recession risk is corporate deleveraging. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy

Advanced Economy Recessions During Global Stress Periods Interesting chart showing the number of advanced economies in recession during global stress periods. Image: Oxford Economics

Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The chart shows that the U.S. business cycle drives global asset allocation and suggests a possible U.S. recession in 2020. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market is pricing a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, just below the long-term average, keeping the risk backdrop relatively subdued. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs sees it closer to 30%. Is the market too complacent? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability Markets now price in just a 14% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, keeping recession fears modest and consistent with a moderate-risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Equity Forward Earnings Global earnings growth exceeding 15% is rare outside of post-recession recoveries or major economic booms. Right now, the backdrop for businesses is unusually strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Proportion of S&P 500 Firms Mentioning Recession during Quarterly Earnings Calls The proportion of S&P 500 firms mentioning “recession” in their earnings calls has risen sharply to 24%, signaling growing worries about an economic slowdown despite continued positive earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…