U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 0.43% YoY in Sept., are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

Global Manufacturing vs. Service Sector

Global Manufacturing vs. Service Sector This chart shows that the global manufacturing sector is in recession, while the service sector is doing well. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Financial Services Exports Around the World

Financial Services Exports Around the World In 2018, the total global exports in financial services was $489.8 billion. The US, UK and Luxembourg make up 54% of the world’s financial services exports. Picture source: howmuch.net

The Ability of U.S. Companies to Service their Debt is Good

The Ability of U.S. Companies to Service their Debt is Good In recent history, this chart suggests that poor ability of U.S. companies to service their debt leads to recession. That’s not the case today. This indicator suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP Chart showing the correlation between the U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. real GDP. The service sector is still expanding. Picture source: Oxford Economics

Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys

Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys Interesting chart showing drawdowns in S&P 500 versus ISM surveys. Weakness in the manufacturing and service sectors matters. Picture source: Sampension