Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -0.50% YoY in January, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Private Non-Financial Debt Service Ratios Relative To Income Lower interest rates make debt more sustainable. What matters is the debt service cost.
Inflation – U.S. Core CPI Goods and Core CPI Services 20 years of almost no inflation in goods. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Household Debt Service Ratios by Country China’s household debt has grown rapidly in recent years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Manufacturing and Services Value Added in Percentage of U.S. GDP U.S. manufacturing has decreased over the past decades and is now more than five times smaller than the service sector. Image: Macrobond
U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…
World Economy – Services as Share of Total GDP Services account for about 65% of global GDP and about 77% of the United States’ GDP. Image: howmuch.net
Global Manufacturing vs. Service Sector This chart shows that the global manufacturing sector is in recession, while the service sector is doing well. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Financial Services Exports Around the World In 2018, the total global exports in financial services was $489.8 billion. The US, UK and Luxembourg make up 54% of the world’s financial services exports. Image: howmuch.net
Cost of U.S. Tariffs Across All Goods and Services The estimated annual cost is about $460 for the average family. Image: The New York Times