Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -4.62% YoY in April. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, suggesting that changes in the index may predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Firms Responses to Whether They Use AI to Produce Goods and Services Currently, only 5% of U.S. firms use AI to produce goods and services, but this figure is expected to grow as more companies recognize the potential benefits of AI technologies. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A “soft recession” occurs when the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracts while services remain robust, leading to a period of slower economic activity. Image: Real Investment Advice
Inflation – CPI Services vs. PPI Services and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid and PPI services tend to lead CPI services by 9 months. Image: Alpine Macro
Inflation – ISM Services Business Prices vs. Copper The rise of copper prices is a cause for concern as it can lead to higher prices for a variety of goods and services. Image: Steno Research
U.S. Equity Risk Premium vs. ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services The equity risk premium is likely to rise if a U.S. recession occurs this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. ISM Services PMI vs. U.S. CPI The ISM Services PMI tends to lead U.S. CPI by three months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Recessions and ISM Services PMI The ISM Services PMI below 50 is a warning signal of a coming recession in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Services PMI The U.S. ISM Services Index came in much higher than expected in November. Could the Fed be more hawkish? Image: The Daily Shot
Margins – PPI Trade Service Index, Unit Labor Costs and U.S. Core CPI Are margins at risk in 2023? Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics