Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -6.14% YoY in October, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession was on the horizon in the United States.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A recession has become less likely, as the rise in ISM Services indicates that the U.S. economy remains robust. Image: Real Investment Advice
Inflation – CPI Services vs. PPI Services and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid and PPI services tend to lead CPI services by 9 months. Image: Alpine Macro
Inflation – ISM Services Business Prices vs. Copper The rise of copper prices is a cause for concern as it can lead to higher prices for a variety of goods and services. Image: Steno Research
U.S. Equity Risk Premium vs. ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services The equity risk premium is likely to rise if a U.S. recession occurs this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. ISM Services PMI vs. U.S. CPI The ISM Services PMI tends to lead U.S. CPI by three months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Recessions and ISM Services PMI The ISM Services PMI below 50 is a warning signal of a coming recession in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Services PMI The U.S. ISM Services Index came in much higher than expected in November. Could the Fed be more hawkish? Image: The Daily Shot
Margins – PPI Trade Service Index, Unit Labor Costs and U.S. Core CPI Are margins at risk in 2023? Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Goods and Services Split for U.S. Economy and S&P 500 Earnings Cooling demand for goods could hit U.S. stocks. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute