Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.38% YoY in February. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
S&P 1500 Software & Services Median Shorts Short bets on software stocks have climbed to their highest level since the GFC, even as many firms keep turning in solid revenue growth. That crowding could spark painful squeeze rallies if the group starts to recover. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession. But if services begin to crack, things could shift quickly. Image: Real Investment Advice
Inflation – U.S. ISM Services Prices vs. Super Core PCE History shows the U.S. ISM Services Prices Index tends to lead super core inflation by five months, which means sticky prices aren’t going anywhere soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Firms Responses to Whether They Use AI to Produce Goods and Services Currently, only 5% of U.S. firms use AI to produce goods and services, but this figure is expected to grow as more companies recognize the potential benefits of AI technologies. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Inflation – CPI Services vs. PPI Services and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid and PPI services tend to lead CPI services by 9 months. Image: Alpine Macro
Inflation – ISM Services Business Prices vs. Copper The rise of copper prices is a cause for concern as it can lead to higher prices for a variety of goods and services. Image: Steno Research
U.S. Equity Risk Premium vs. ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services The equity risk premium is likely to rise if a U.S. recession occurs this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. ISM Services PMI vs. U.S. CPI The ISM Services PMI tends to lead U.S. CPI by three months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Recessions and ISM Services PMI The ISM Services PMI below 50 is a warning signal of a coming recession in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Research