U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 0.43% YoY in Sept., are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
World Economy – Services as Share of Total GDP Services account for about 65% of global GDP and about 77% of the United States’ GDP. Picture source: howmuch.net
Global Manufacturing vs. Service Sector This chart shows that the global manufacturing sector is in recession, while the service sector is doing well. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Financial Services Exports Around the World In 2018, the total global exports in financial services was $489.8 billion. The US, UK and Luxembourg make up 54% of the world’s financial services exports. Picture source: howmuch.net
Cost of U.S. Tariffs Across All Goods and Services The estimated annual cost is about $460 for the average family. Picture source: The New York Times
The Ability of U.S. Companies to Service their Debt is Good In recent history, this chart suggests that poor ability of U.S. companies to service their debt leads to recession. That’s not the case today. This indicator suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP Chart showing the correlation between the U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. real GDP. The service sector is still expanding. Picture source: Oxford Economics
Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys Interesting chart showing drawdowns in S&P 500 versus ISM surveys. Weakness in the manufacturing and service sectors matters. Picture source: Sampension
