Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -0.43% YoY in January, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
U.S. Equity Risk Premium vs. ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services The equity risk premium is likely to rise if a U.S. recession occurs this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. ISM Services PMI vs. U.S. CPI The ISM Services PMI tends to lead U.S. CPI by three months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Recessions and ISM Services PMI The ISM Services PMI below 50 is a warning signal of a coming recession in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Services PMI The U.S. ISM Services Index came in much higher than expected in November. Could the Fed be more hawkish? Image: The Daily Shot
Margins – PPI Trade Service Index, Unit Labor Costs and U.S. Core CPI Are margins at risk in 2023? Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Goods and Services Split for U.S. Economy and S&P 500 Earnings Cooling demand for goods could hit U.S. stocks. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Interest Service On Debt (Treasury Rate) and Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity Could the Fed’s rate hikes lead to a federal debt crisis? Image: Real Investment Advice
World Trade Volume of Goods and Services The International Monetary Fund expects global trade to rebound in 2021 and 2022. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Market Capitalization Weight of Info Tech, Communication Services, and Health Care Info tech, communication services, and health care sectors now account for 52% of the S&P 500 market capitalization. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research