Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total Persistent concerns remain about excessive concentration, as the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 account for a much larger share of the index’s weight than their share of earnings would justify. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity investors in May 2025 are highly risk averse, with bearish expectations for short-term returns, driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Ownership Breakdown of the U.S. Equity Market (Share of Corporate Equity Market) U.S. households own 38% of the U.S. equity market, demonstrating strong confidence in stocks. However, stock ownership is highly concentrated, with the wealthiest 10% holding approximately 90% of all household-owned equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Share of Global Equity Market The U.S. share of the global equity market, while still dominant at 54%, has retreated from its peak of 57%, reflecting recent market turbulence and growing diversification concerns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Foreign Investor Ownership Share of U.S. Equity Market Foreign investor holdings of U.S. stocks have reached an unprecedented 18%, setting a new record. However, upcoming trade policy shifts and global economic uncertainties could impact future foreign investment in American equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – U.S. Equity Market Capitalization to GDP The U.S. equity market cap to GDP ratio is near an all-time high at approximately 187%, suggesting a significant overvaluation of the U.S. stock market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Do You Believe the Risk of an Equity Market Correction at Some Point Over the Next 3-6 Months Is High or Low? JPMorgan’s survey reveals that 82% of their clients anticipate a high likelihood of an equity market correction within the next 3-6 months. Image: J.P. Morgan
When Do You Expect the U.S. Equity Market Will Peak? 77% of financial advisors believe the bull market will continue beyond 2024, as they expect stellar corporate results, easy financial conditions, and lower interest rates to support its continuation. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Gold – Beta of USD/xxx to Equity Market Volatility Related to Government Spending Gold has been a very good hedge against debt ceiling worries in the past. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Market Volatility Related to Uncertainty over Government Spending Equity market volatility may spike when the debt ceiling is under discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank
Money Market Fund Assets as a Percent of S&P 500 Market Capitalization Cash on the sidelines is not elevated relative to the S&P 500 market capitalization. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management