U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 24 months ago. The mature phase lasted 72 months in the late 1960s and 57 months in the late 1990s. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

S&P 500 Gap Risk

S&P 500 Gap Risk The S&P 500 Index is subject to significant gap risks under the Presidency of Donald Trump. Image: Hayek and Keynes

U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence

U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence Great chart showing the strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence and the U.S. Output Gap. U.S. consumer confidence always peaks before a recession. Image: Pictet Asset Management

S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield

S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The gap between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently relatively high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Earnings Growth

Global Earnings Growth Chart showing that the gap between U.S. earnings growth and non-U.S. earnings growth is narrowing. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. and Eurozone Unemployment Rates

U.S. and Eurozone Unemployment Rates This chart shows the gap between the unemployment rates of the two economies, while unemployment falls to historic lows. Image: Financial Times

Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard

Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard US-China trade war is hurting Asia export hubs. Singapore is heading for a recession. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research