S&P 500 Gap Risk

S&P 500 Gap Risk The S&P 500 Index is subject to significant gap risks under the Presidency of Donald Trump. Picture source: Hayek and Keynes

Valuation Gap Between High and Low Dividend Yield Stocks

Valuation Gap Between High and Low Dividend Yield Stocks This chart shows that the valuation gap between high and low dividend yield stocks is almost the widest ever. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence

U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence Great chart showing the strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence and the U.S. Output Gap. U.S. consumer confidence always peaks before a recession. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management

Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard

Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard US-China trade war is hurting Asia export hubs. Singapore is heading for a recession. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Equity Market Driven by Bonds Not Profits

Equity Market Driven by Bonds Not Profits The chart shows a widening gap between cyclicals and bond proxies. It is clearly a cyclical bear market within a bull market, as during the dotcom bubble. Picture source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Homeownership Disparity Deepens

Homeownership Disparity Deepens Since 1994, the gap between blacks and whites has widened, in part because starter-home prices have exploded, year after year. Inequality: you may also like “U.S. Unemployment Rate: Black or African Americans” and  “U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket” and “Countries With the Highest Housing Bubble Risks.” Picture Source: Bloomberg

Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth

Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth This chart shows that U.S. home prices are rising faster than wages. There is clearly a widening gap between wage growth and house price. Today, houses are too expensive for most young people.

Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run

Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run Over the long run, equities move with earnings. Currently, there is a big gap between U.S. and Europe earnings. As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” You may also like “Global Earnings since 2006.” Picture source: Cullen Roche