U.S. Output Gap and Inflation

U.S. Output Gap and Inflation This chart shows that actual U.S. GDP is higher than potential GDP. Historically, a positive output gap leads to inflation. Image: Richardson GMP

Valuation Gap Between U.S. and Emerging Markets ex-China

Valuation Gap Between U.S. and Emerging Markets ex-China According to BofA, emerging markets ex-China benefit from favorable demographics, modernization potential, and attractive valuations for the long term. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 24 months ago. The mature phase lasted 72 months in the late 1960s and 57 months in the late 1990s. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

S&P 500 Gap Risk

S&P 500 Gap Risk The S&P 500 Index is subject to significant gap risks under the Presidency of Donald Trump. Image: Hayek and Keynes

U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence

U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence Great chart showing the strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence and the U.S. Output Gap. U.S. consumer confidence always peaks before a recession. Image: Pictet Asset Management

S&P 500 Operating EPS vs. Normalized EPS

S&P 500 Operating EPS vs. Normalized EPS The gap between operating and normalized EPS is the widest since Q3 2007 (the prior market peak). Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy