Ratio of Bitcoin to Production Cost Bitcoin slipped below JPMorgan’s estimated production cost of $94,000 for the first time since mid-2020, a level that has often marked the price floor in earlier cycles. Even so, the bank remains optimistic on Bitcoin’s potential. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 – Total Real Return of $1000 Investment with Dollar Cost Average vs. Valuations Sure, dollar-cost averaging can dull the pain of bad timing, but it won’t erase it. Even with the Fed’s heavy hand, recovery from a bear market rarely happens overnight. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Tariff Costs Goldman Sachs forecasts that by October 2025, U.S. businesses will absorb just 8% of Trump-era tariff costs—down from 64%—while the share borne by U.S. consumers rises to 67%. This shift is expected to drive consumer prices higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of Tariff Cost Burden While the importer of record pays the tariff legally, the economic cost of tariffs is distributed across U.S. consumers, U.S. businesses that rely on imports, and foreign exporters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation and Shipping Costs Global shipping rates usually lead producer prices by six months, indicating a potential rise in the Consumer Price Index in the near future. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Borrow Cost vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield S&P 500 borrow costs remain low so far. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Revenues Minus S&P 500 Costs Increased costs have outpaced S&P 500 revenue growth, which is not good news. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Net Margin and NFIB Small Business Survey: Demand vs. Wage Cost Composite (Leading Indicator) Is there a risk of further decline in S&P 500 margins? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Margins – PPI Trade Service Index, Unit Labor Costs and U.S. Core CPI Are margins at risk in 2023? Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics
S&P 500 Index – the Cost of Waiting If investors wait for the perfect moment to invest, there is always a good reason not to be invested in the U.S. stock market. Image: Real Investment Advice
ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Mortgage Servicing Costs (Leading Indicator) Mortgage servicing costs tend to lead the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI by 12 months. Image: Topdown Charts