Search Results for: cost

Tariffs Are a Hidden Tax on American Consumers and Companies Tariff man is back! Keep in mind that trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Trump’s trade war hurts the U.S. economy and stocks.

“Real Fed Rates Are the Most Accurate Predictor of Future S&P 500 Volatility,” Says SocGen SocGen says it is the most accurate predictor of S&P 500’s volatility over the last 50 years. Should investors be nervous about rising real interest rates? Yes, higher real interest rates mean higher borrowing costs. Real Fed funds rate is…

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate In modern history, every recession was preceded by an inverted yield curve and high real interest rates. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will…

Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate One of our most favorite charts is the real GDP vs. the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation). Historically, recessions begin when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that today. So, this cycle should not end any time soon. Real Fed…

Real Fed Funds Rate Real Fed funds rate is a key indicative factor, because it’s a very good measure of how tight or loose monetary policy is. Real Fed funds rate is the “true cost” of borrowing money. Recessions have always been preceded by a substantial tightening of monetary policy, which, in real terms, matter…

‘There is an inevitable recession in the near term,’ says analyst Could S&P 500 fall 40% by the end of 2019? Octavio Costa, global macro analyst at Crescat Capital, discusses this possibility in regard to the yield curve inversion.