S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Oil Price Deviation from 48-Month Moving Average and U.S. Recessions While rising oil prices increase inflationary pressures and pose risks to economic growth, data suggest that current oil prices do not point toward a U.S. recession. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward Price-to-Earnings The S&P 500 is trading at 22 times expected earnings over the next year, 35% above its 20-year average. These elevated valuations are partly justified by expectations of strong forward earnings growth. Image: Bloomberg
Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices act like a tax on the economy, cutting disposable income and raising business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are generally short-lived because demand falls and markets adapt. Image: Real Investment Advice
The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the general rate of inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could change quickly in response to upcoming inflation data or shifts in the economic landscape, but for now, traders are pricing in almost two rate cuts before the end of 2025. Image: Bloomberg
WTI Oil Prices While oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, particularly in regions like the Middle East, the market has so far avoided the kind of sustained shock that would trigger broader inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Brent Crude Oil Prices – Biggest Weekly Jumps Fueled by a sudden escalation in Middle East conflict and concerns over major supply disruptions, Brent crude oil prices experienced one of their biggest weekly gains since 1988. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Price Target for 2025 Citing diminished tariff effects and a resilient U.S. economy, Deutsche Bank has increased its year-end S&P 500 forecast to 6,550, up from 6,150. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Gold Price Seasonality June has been a challenging month for gold investors over the past five decades, delivering the lowest hit rate and the second-worst overall performance. Image: Topdown Charts
Impact of Higher Tariffs on the U.S. Core PCE Price Index The coming inflation rebound is expected be limited in scope and duration, meaning it is unlikely to trigger the kind of persistent inflation psychology that can drive a sustained wage-price spiral. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research