Interest Rates – Market-Implied Probability of Negative Policy Rate 1 Year Ahead Negative interest rates in the US and the UK ahead? Option markets point to elevated probabilities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Expected Fed Funds Rate, Negative Interest Rates and 2-Year Treasury Yield Negative U.S. yields are in sight, as Fed funds futures for June 2021 imply an expected negative rate of -0.03%. Image: Fidelity Investments
Percentage Share of Advanced Countries GDP Recording Negative Real Interest Rate Since 1314 This chart shows the record high level of advanced countries GDP experiencing negative real interest rates. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Fed Funds Futures Curve (Interest Rates) For the first time, traders are starting to price in negative U.S. interest rates for first time. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal
Net Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes / Cuts Central banks haven’t cut this much since the global financial crisis. Image: BofA
U.S. Real Interest Rates and Recessions Currently, U.S. real interest rates are negative. In recent history, real interest rates were at least above 1.8% (orange line) before a recession.
How Major Central Banks Will Change Interest Rates by the End of 2020 Chart suggesting that 2020 appears to be a quieter year for monetary policy. Image: Bloomberg
Cumulative Interest Rate Cuts in OECD Countries Central banks in OECD countries haven’t cut this much since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Interest Rate-Growth Differential and Short-Term Lending Rate Since 1880, U.S. interest rates have been higher than growth 32% of the time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Labor Productivity and Real Interest Rates Chart suggesting that low real interest rates have a major impact on U.S. labor productivity growth Image: Gavekal, Macrobond