Sentiment on Durable Goods Purchases Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that sentiment on durable goods purchases lead the unemployment rate by 12 months, and that the U.S. economy seems to be moving into the late phase of its business cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Consumers and Large Durables Good news for the U.S. economy! American consumers are buying large durables again, despite tariffs and trade uncertainty. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP Corporate America’s profit share remains elevated in 2025, a sign that the pandemic-era surge in profitability has proven surprisingly durable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumers – Z-Scored University of Michigan Buying Conditions Consumer buying conditions for durable goods, vehicles and homes are at their worst since 1980. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Discretionary Spending and Recessions Because there are few imbalances, Deutsche Bank suggests that the U.S. expansion could continue for many more years. Note: discreationary spending defined as consumer durable goods, plus business capex, plus residential investment (i.e. PCE durables + gross private domestic investment). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research