U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data

U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data U.S. hard data is improving, but the chart shows the current divergence between U.S. hard data and soft data. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

How’s the US Economy Doing Now?

How’s the US Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…

Second-half Recovery in Growth?

Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Picture source: Richardson GMP