Keyword: 10Y-2Y

10Y-2Y Yield Curve and U.S. Recession The U.S. yield curve is steepening and suggests optimism for 2020, as investors become more confident in the U.S. economy. Image: Financial Times

Yield Curve 10Y-2Y and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that the 10Y-2Y spread (YoY) leads the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and U.S. High Yield Bonds Chart suggesting that high yield prices are not likely to perform well. Image: Morgan Stanley

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion Until U.S. Recession Starts An inverted yield curve doesn’t always mean that a recession is imminent. But historically, a sustained yield curve inversion has been a good indicator of recession. Image: Legg Mason

Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve A support for U.S. dollar bears could be a significant Fed easing, resulting in a steeper yield curve. Image: Saxo Bank

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 Index should not peak until June 2020. In recent history, the S&P 500 Index peaks 10 months on average after the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Time From First 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion And S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 tends to rise after an inverted yield curve. Last three 10Y-2Y curve inversions, further gains average 33%. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

S&P 500 Returns Following 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversions In recent history, the 10Y-2Y curve inversion has preceded U.S. recessions, but the S&P 500 typically rises in 12 months following yield curve inversion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Historical Performance in Different Yield Curve Regimes Great table showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury spread and the S&P 500 historical performance. Image: J.P. Morgan

S&P 500 All-Time High and Inverted Yield Curve The S&P 500 tends to rise after an inverted yield curve. It has made new all-time highs 5 of 5 times the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverted. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC