10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 Index should not peak until June 2020. In recent history, the S&P 500 Index peaks 10 months on average after the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts. Picture source: Jeroen Blokland

S&P 500 Returns Following 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversions

S&P 500 Returns Following 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversions In recent history, the 10Y-2Y curve inversion has preceded U.S. recessions, but the S&P 500 typically rises in 12 months following yield curve inversion. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Yield Curve 10Y-2Y vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

Yield Curve 10Y-2Y vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that the 10Y-2Y spread (YoY) leads the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond

S&P 500 All-Time High and Inverted Yield Curve

S&P 500 All-Time High and Inverted Yield Curve The S&P 500 tends to rise after an inverted yield curve. It has made new all-time highs 5 of 5 times the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverted. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

US Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions

US Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions This interesting chart shows the US yield curve inversion (10y-2y spread) and recessions. Historically, by ending the rate hiking cycle before an inversion, the expansion has still some legs and the next recession is postponed. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Guide to the Markets” for Q2 2019