U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions While a steepening inverted yield curve has historically served as a warning sign for U.S. recessions, the current economic context of expected Fed rate cuts and strong economic indicators suggests this time may be different Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Slope A positive yield curve is good news for the U.S. economy. However, recession probability models based on the yield curve slope point to elevated odds of a recession in the next year. Could this time be an exception? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Historically, the inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve has accurately forecasted every U.S. recession, and its current inversion is a cause for concern. Is this time an exception? Image: J.P. Morgan
Consecutive Trading Days of Inverted 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury Yield Curve The anticipation of Fed easing is being driven by the aging of yield curve inversion. Market participants are expecting the Fed to cut rates in order to stimulate economic growth and prevent a potential recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve vs. Recessionary Bear Market Lows Historically, a steepening inverted US 10Y-2Y yield curve tends to precede recessionary bear market lows. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Initial Jobless Claims A steepening yield curve tends to occur when jobless claims surge. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve A steepening U.S. yield curve has preceded recessions. Will the U.S. unemployment rate start to rise by the end of 2023? Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Dollar (Inverted) vs. 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Could the U.S. dollar increase the risk of recession in the United States? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Index and 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Less Than 0.25% Historically, the inversion of the 10Y-2Y yield curve is not an immediate sell signal for U.S. stocks. Image: MarketDesk Research
Yield Curve – U.S. Equity Returns in the 12-Months Following the First 10Y-2Y Inversion in Each Cycle Will the S&P 500 hit a new record high this year, despite the 10Y-2Y inverted yield curve? Image: J.P. Morgan